11.06.10

Another Example of IDC Giving Bogus (Meaningless) Numbers and Mary Jo Foley Failing to Report the News

Posted in Deception, GNU/Linux, Microsoft, Red Hat, Servers at 1:02 am by Dr. Roy Schestowitz

Arguing with IDG

Summary: Why the impact and market share of GNU/Linux is understated and who is responsible for it

A FEW days ago we showed a Microsoft employee stating the obvious by saying that “Mary Jo does not [do real journalism] and that’s why she gets interviews at Microsoft” and on about a dozen of occasions we’ve explained why IDC’s numbers regarding GNU/Linux are meaningless and deceiving by design (IDC lies in many other areas, but just that’s how it makes money after all, by selling bias). IDG’s IDC is the Fox News of IT and even its own staff is admitting that they cheat or make claims up.

Our reader Wayne, whom we hope to have on our show (TechBytes) some time later this month, has just published a rebuttal to this whole nonsense from Microsoft, Mary Jo Foley, and IDC (which Microsoft routinely pays [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]). Here are some parts of Wayne’s long analysis.

I was pointed at an article on The Unofficial Apple Web Blog titled Xserve End Of Life: Some opinions and ideas about Apple’s server strategy. I read it, and the numbers didn’t make any sense, so I started looking. Steven Sande, writer of the TUAW article got his numbers from an article by Mary Jane Foley at ZDNet titled IDC: Windows Server still rules the server roost. Mary Jane, who should know better by now got her numbers from an IDC (International Data Corporation) Press Release.

Note the chain. Steve, to Mary Jane, to IDC.

[..]

Now it’s quite possible that Windows does have 75.3% of units shipped, that IDC tracked. Most large servers need to be reliable, and therefore they wouldn’t run Windows. If Windows was the primary OS installed on cheap commodity hardware, then the numbers might make sense.

Curiously the IDC study doesn’t cover servers shipped without an installed Operating System. There are a lot of companies that have an OS that they’ve tuned specifically for their requirements, either on their own, or using a company like Red Hat or Novell. And that’s another issue. Red Hat and Novell are two of the largest Linux Server Operating System vendors. They aren’t mentioned in the report. Why not? A quick look at Red Hat’s latest 10K filing with the American Securities and Exchange Commission shows that Red Hat booked revenues of $748 Million American Dollars!

Now this really puts ia different spin on things. Total sales of servers with a Microsoft Windows Server variant were reported as $5.1 Billion for Q1-2010. The IDC report says that sales of servers with Microsoft Windows Servers installed for Q4-2009 were $5.4 Billion. Let’s make a rash assumption – sales of servers with Microsoft Windows Server installed came to about $22.0 Billion for a full year.

[...]

OK, so let’s compare Red Hat to Microsoft. First off, Red Hat doesn’t sell Client Access Licenses. They don’t even really sell their software, they sell support contracts for it. So a direct comparison is hard to make, but Red Hat support for one year, with unlimited users, is less expensive than Microsoft Windows 2008R2 with only five users. And after the year is up, you can keep running your Red Hat system. Oh, Red Hat would rather that you continue to pay support, and using their support means you could probably employ a smaller IT staff, so it’s probably still less expensive to use Red Hat.

But Red Hat is probably installed on more systems than Microsoft Windows Server, based on the company’s own numbers.

Hold on – it get’s better still. Have you ever heard of CENT-OS (short for The Community ENTerprise Operating System)? CENT-OS is a totally open and free version of Red Hat. Yes, you heard me right. Free. As in Beer. No Cost. Estimates I have seen (which may or may not be accurate) say that CENT-OS is probably used on ten times as many servers as Red Hat!

So let’s see – someone is saying that Microsoft holds 75.3% of the server market by units shipped? How could this be?

Simple. IDC is only recording some of the data. Some of it, such as the number of White Box (generic hardware, assembled by smaller players in the server market) servers probably isn’t available to them. Some of it, they may be ignoring. It’s curious that all of the big server manufacturers offer bare servers (no operating system), but IDC didn’t provide any numbers for bare servers. IDC has been around a long time. They know about bare servers, so rather than curious I’d say that their ignoring them is down right suspicious.

Microsoft’s monopoly continues to depend (to a certain degree) on a lot of lies and alternation of perceptions. On some occasion 2 years ago Steve Ballmer admitted that “60 percent [of servers] run Linux…”

Mary Jo Foley and the likes of her should spend less time parroting Microsoft-funded entities and actually do the research (or ensure its validity). In the world of academia they would get an “F”.

Microsoft CEO is Dumping MSFT

Posted in Bill Gates, Finance, Microsoft, Patents, Steve Ballmer at 12:39 am by Dr. Roy Schestowitz

Summary: Additional signs that Vista Phony 7 [sic] is failing as Ballmer dumps close to a fifth of his holdings in the company he runs

LOOK NO FURTHER than Microsoft for evidence of the company’s gradual collapse. Even its top people lost faith. Bill Gates has been getting rid of his Microsoft shares for quite some time (only gradually), but Steve Ballmer too is starting to get rid of Microsoft shares, starting with a huge disposal of $1.34 billion in Microsoft stock.

Steve BallmerChips B Malroy says that “If this isn’t an impending sign that the stock is going tank soon, then its a sign of Ballmer being soon forced out, or both.” There is a lot more in the IRC logs. “Notice that the sales,” he adds, “were not made (at least the news of the sale) public until late Friday… Because a sale like this by the CEO would have caused the stock price to tank.

“It looks like Ballmer is trying to cash in, and just doesn’t have enough stock, even with his one position on the board itself, to prevent his eventual ouster. Just more rats deserting the sinking ship, but this time it might be the CEO himself.”

According to Microsoft boosters, Ballmer will sell almost a fifth of his stake. The sources add: “Ballmer last made a sale of Microsoft stock in 2003. Bill Gates remains the largest individual shareholder in the company. The Microsoft chairman routinely sells 80 million shares a year in a portfolio diversification strategy. As of the company’s last proxy statement, Gates owned 621 million shares, or more than 7 percent of the company.”

“But if you sell it too fast, it will surely tank.”
      –Chips B Malroy
“Ok, so neither Ballmer or Gates wants to be left holding the bag of Microsoft stock when it tanks,” Chips B Malroy speculates. “But if you sell it too fast, it will surely tank.

“Could it be that WP7 is already a bust, with Kinect not far behind? Is this the real reason that the CEO is dumping stock?”

Both products had about half a billion dollars dedicated just to marketing. That is some huge waste. Ballmer recently joked rather than properly answered the question when asked if WP7 (Vista Phony 7 [sic]) failing would cost him his job.

Chips B Malroy quotes from a very recent article (or several): “But given how many mistakes Microsoft made in the design of the Windows Phone 7 OS, it probably makes sense to focus on not using the device. No one, as near as I can tell, will want to spend much time with it. Maybe the slogan should be “The smartphone for people who hate smartphones.” [...] It doesn’t support copy-and-paste. It doesn’t offer an easy way to switch between open applications. And it doesn’t have a universal search that allows you to find applications, content, messages or other data stored on your device. [...] What’s more, its Web browser supports neither Adobe’s Flash software nor HTML5, which Apple has promoted as an alternative to Flash.”

Notice that Microsoft shares no numbers about WP7 (Vista Phony 7 [sic]) sales. It means that the number of actual sales (not channel stuffing and granting of phones to all Microsoft employees, with an apparent similar deal at Dell) must be embarrassing.

Oiaohm responds by saying: “Android is only first wave of Linux. Meego is lining up to be second wave. So we are going to have Meego vs Android. [...] Really, Meego is about unifying distributions. Fedora [and] Suse already have Meego forms.”

“Android is only first wave of Linux. Meego is lining up to be second wave.”
      –Oiaohm
“It’s important to show that Microsoft is failing to compete with Linux in the form of Android and with Apple on ARM devices. This will be when the snowball start to speed up on the decline of MS,” Chips B Malroy claims. “We should not want the US gov to bail out MS when the time comes, as in “too big to fail.” MS will try to pull that one. [...] using taxpayers money to bail out MS when and if it fails, is not funny.”

“Really, here is the funny part,” says Oiaohm in response. “By the time US gov tries to bail out MS it might be impossible. Only way to bail MS out would be to raid it and release all its source code. Basically terminate its existence.”

Chips B Malroy continues: “Well, the brainwashed here will be crying for the gov to bail them out, so they won’t have to try another OS. Inertia is all that is keeping MS going, that and the hold they have on OEM’s preinstalls. The preinstalls are now in effect being broken by Apple and Google. This trend is likely to rapidly accelerate. At some point, enough users will have used Android/ChromeOS and iOS on ARM devices to try them on Intel computers. When that happens, MS is dead.”

“But OEM preinstalls are not going to be enough,” replies Oiaohm. “Linux has preinstalls now on phones and other devices. The market is poisoned. Problem is in a way that there is no way to stop it [editor's note: actually, Microsoft reportedly extorts with patents in attempt to prevent this now]. It’s exactly like when Linux took the super computer market. Just on a large scale.”

The full conversation will be published later.

For those who think that this is far fetched, remember that Microsoft’s debt is growing and the future seems far from promising, even based on analysts (who are usually easy for companies to ‘buy’). Just because rich people came out of Microsoft does not mean they’ll donate their money to save Microsoft. It just doesn’t work that way.

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