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12.30.09

Can Novell Survive 2010 Without Being Acquired/Merged?

Posted in Asia, Dell, Finance, Microsoft, Mono, Novell at 6:46 pm by Dr. Roy Schestowitz

Novell as moon

Summary: Novell’s weakness and slowdown as shown by this week’s press

WHILE NOVELL is going "downhill" it is also going to the East, notably countries like India. It’s a matter of cutting costs, just like at Microsoft.

Novell also moves to Taiwan, one of its very few growth markets which it perceives as an opportunity. According to the following new report from DigiTimes, Novell’s business is slowing down even in Taiwan.

Novell estimates its 2009 sales revenues in the Taiwan to increase by about 6% from 2008, marking the first time for the enterprise software and service provider to see on-year growth of less than 10% in the local market, according to Novell Taiwan general manager Barry Chen.

Everywhere one looks, Novell is bleeding to death and with $200,000,000 in losses (2009 fiscal), the future seems uncertain. Novell seems to have found its place in the industry acting as a Microsoft proxy and giving GNU/Linux users “Pledgeware” like Moonlight (also making it a more attractive takeover target for Microsoft, as regulators would spot less competition being eliminated, just converged). Sadly, it’s not a joke and Moonlight is poisonous. It’s Microsoft’s apple to the Free software Snow Whites.

Do the following latest news headlines (ones we have not included yet) make it sound like a gift?

That’s like a man proposing to a woman by promising that he would not beat her up. Feel the love in air. Needless to say, promises are not legal contracts and the promise itself is full of more than a dozen legal/technical holes, as was shown last week [1, 2].

Novell is down again and rumours return that it might be merged or acquired (Citrix named as a possibility).

Novell, Inc. (NASDAQ:NOVL), the infrastructure software company had the third largest retreat in the S&P 500 by slumping 2.40% to $4.07.

 

Oracle likes to be in control, as it soon will be with Java, so why not with x64-based server virtualization as well as application streaming and desktop virtualization? Oracle is a good fit for Citrix. But then again, Novell and Citrix could also merge. And as El Reg has pointed out more than once, IBM needs Novell and Citrix as much as Oracle might. Perhaps more.

Other journalists or pundits have already said that Citrix might buy Novell one day (and Microsoft might buy Citrix). Other potential acquirers/mergers for Novell — as mentioned by the press — are Dell and McAfee. Microsoft also seems like an option.

12.16.09

“Enderle Has Been Paid by Both Microsoft and Dell to Say Bad Things About Apple”

Posted in Apple, Deception, Dell, FUD, Microsoft at 3:22 pm by Dr. Roy Schestowitz

Dell monitor logo

Summary: New claims about a source of anti-GNU/Linux FUD, who is close to Microsoft’s PR department and executives (also paid by them)

Roughly Drafted Magazine has just gone on a round of shill-busting, slamming Strand Consult and Diaz for breaking Godwin’s law. But more relevant to us is this new essay about Rob Enderle, one of Microsoft’s more incestuous shills [1, 2].

Back in 2007, the New York Times first instated a ban on shills like Rob Enderle, who purport to be independent analysts while actually serving as paid mouthpieces for the firms they represent. In the words of Times spokeswoman Abbe Serphos, this supposedly included any “analysts who have an obvious business relationship with a company.”

It’s no secret that Enderle has been paid by both Microsoft and Dell to say bad things about Apple. It eventually became embarrassing for the Times to realize its sloppy journalists were stooping to quote him as a shortcut to performing actual investigative research, hence the ban.

Why can’t newspapers stick to the ban of people with a conflict of interests? The guy is already exposed and so are many others.

“Analysts sell out – that’s their business model…”

Microsoft, internal document [PDF]

11.21.09

Novell News Summary – Part III: SCO Updates, Company Financials, and Tech Data Arrangements

Posted in Dell, Mail, Marketing, Microsoft, NetWare, Novell, SCO, Servers, UNIX, Virtualisation at 9:56 am by Dr. Roy Schestowitz

Meteor crater

Summary: Despite being a quiet week for Novell, there are items worth highlighting as follows

Read the rest of this entry »

11.05.09

Confirmed: Microsoft Publicly Lies About Market Share of GNU/Linux

Posted in Deception, Dell, Europe, FUD, GNU/Linux, Microsoft, Ubuntu at 5:13 am by Dr. Roy Schestowitz

Dell laptop

Summary: Microsoft’s slanderous claims about the popularity of GNU/Linux are echoed by its crowd and refuted by professionals

OUR readers ‘Goblin’ and David Gerard have just pointed out that Microsoft’s FUD regarding the sub-notebooks market is being refuted, just as it was before (Dell, for example, refuted this in August and Canonical did so too).

Reports that the Linux netbook is dead or dying are incorrect, at least globally, according to an analyst firm.

Nearly one-third of the 35 million netbooks on track to ship this year will come with some variant of the free, open-source operating system, ABI Research said. The exact split is 32% Linux versus 68% Windows, said Jeff Orr, an analyst at ABI, which works out to about 11 million Linux netbooks this year.

That number contradicts third-party market figures, trumpeted by Microsoft, that showed Linux shipping on as few as 4% of U.S. netbooks.

Dell claims that one in 3 sub-notebooks that it sells does in fact run Ubuntu. In Germany, which likes GNU/Linux, one source claimed that 40% ship with GNU/Linux (2008). Microsoft Jack [1, 2, 3] spreads the 4% lie, still. It’s part of those massive lies (selective US-only numbers for the most part) that have become so typical. Self-professed Windows guy and shameless Linux basher Alexander Wolfe, for instance, is back to his attacks on GNU/Linux, using invalid data [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7].

Alas, as ITWire puts it, many people are becoming cautious about spreading FUD because their deception gets exposed sooner or later, sometimes leaked.

Open source FUD is alive and kicking

[...]

The frequency with which such articles appear has lessened to a marked degree simply because people who pen them often end up being branded as fools.

[...]

I’ve been watching people trying to spread FUD about FOSS for the last 12 years and not one has succeeded. They’ve all been shot down in flames. Some of the hardy veterans who have been countering the FUD, people like the erudite David F. Skoll of the Canadian company Roaring Penguin, are still around and still firing back.

In the age of free information and open access, lies are more difficult to get away with.

Ballmer's slide on Macs and GNU/Linux
Steve Ballmer’s presentation slide
from 2009 shows GNU/Linux as bigger than Apple on the desktop

“Forty percent of servers run Windows, 60 percent run Linux…”

Steve Ballmer (September 2008)

Related posts:

11.02.09

Readers’ Post: Microsoft’s Retail Efforts

Posted in Dell, Hardware, Microsoft at 3:19 am by Dr. Roy Schestowitz

Shirts market

Summary: Thoughts and analysis about Microsoft stores that have opened recently

MICROSOFT has opened some stores, which the press wrote quite a lot about. Microsoft enters deeper into the hardware business. Not everyone is entirely happy, for example:

Microsoft Retail Store PCs Will Be Crapware-Free, But I’m Still Unsatisfied

[...]

No one likes uninstalling bloatware, trialware, and craplets from their freshly unboxed PCs. Microsoft finally acknowledges this by skipping the unnecessary third-party software in Microsoft retail store PCs. That’s truly great, but they should do a little more than that.

When talking about “crapware-free” computers we typically think about PCs that do not come with Windows preinstalled (and obligatory “Microsoft tax”).

People may be able to recall that Dell too planned to make high street stores, so what Microsoft is doing here is likely to alienate OEM partners. We have discussed this quite thoroughly in IRC and now we find a former Microsoft senior saying that Microsoft lost touch with partners. Microsoft does the same thing in phones (with Pink) and the anti-virus business.

Sage Channel Chief: Microsoft Lost Touch With Partners

Tom Miller, Sage’s vice president of channel management, who oversees all channel programs, operations and channel marketing for the $2.55 billion applications software vendor, spoke Thursday with Channelweb.com’s Steven Burke and Rick Whiting about partner enablement, channel changes in the wake of the failure of Sage’s largest partner, MIS Group, and how the Sage partner philosophy compares with rival Microsoft.

One reader has mailed us his thoughts about Microsoft’s new stores — a move that he described as follows:

There was a flurry of stories about the new Microsoft retail stores over the last few weeks. They proclaimed crowds but pictures only came from a tween star appearance. Some mentioned Apple envy. More interesting they talked about “crap free” computers. I did not see any stories digging into the deeper implications of these stores, though a few of those ran months ago. The puff pieces gloss over real marketplace change and Microsoft failure.

Example puff pieces, praising Microsoft’s move into retail:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1386…
http://www.slashgear.com/not-just…
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/10/3…
http://www.crn.com/softwar…

The “crap free” PCs at Microsoft stores violate 25 years of operating principles and are a clear sign of Microsoft’s collapsing influence over computing. How dare they stab their retail partners in the back so blatantly? Previous Microsoft stores were set in places like casinos and designed more to create a perception of value than to sell computers. Ridiculously expensive computers languished on shelves. Now it looks like Microsoft is serious about selling computers itself and will use every advantage they have. They claimed back in July they would open one of these next to every Apple store.

As usual, the big boys are hurt the least. OEMs like Dell, HP and Lenovo have broken the boot rule with ARM based GNU/Linux in laptops and GNU/Linux netbook sales are an increasingly important source of revenue for them. Surviving retailers like Best Buy, Office Depot, Walmart and Target will be harmed to the degree they got channel stuffed with Windows 7 and suckered into supporting the same. Mom and pop stores, which make most of their money repairing broken Windows, might as well give up or move on to free software if Microsoft opens a store next door. Even the big boys can’t hide from the future and their tenetive revolt shows they know this.

Having squeezed the life out of all their partners Microsoft is forced to do all of the hard work of selling and supporting computers themselves. They can not do this as broadly or even as well as the fiercely competitive ecosystem they once ruled. They are forced to this by eroding margins and declining hardware prices. Retailers must chose between revolt, failure or simply exiting the market. If Vista ruined retailers like CompUSA and Circuit City did not drive the point home, Microsoft retail stores do. Most retailers will chose to exit but none can rely on PCs for big profits again. Microsoft will have to pick up where others leave and will face stiffer competition than their previous partners did.

Microsoft stores are too little too late. In the long run, nothing can save Microsoft from the day when retailers are selling $100 GNU/Linux machines that just work. The rise of iPhone and Droid, while not free software, show where the PC market is really going. It’s doubtful Microsoft stores will get out of the money losing phase before it is apparent that there’s no room in the computer market for software that costs hundreds of dollars.

Another reader of ours actually went to one of the stores yesterday and wrote about her experience thusly:

I did visit the new Microsoft store yesterday, even got a few pictures. I actually enjoyed the store and found the sales help to be an interesting mix of ages and personalities. The store is in a great place in the mall and gets a lot of traffic, it was pretty busy when we were there. The Sony Styles store was on a lower level and off the beaten path, so it was practically empty and quiet. Few customers there. I didn’t go to the Mac store, it was down the street a ways.

Anyway, I don’t like Microsoft any better than I did before visiting the store, but I did enjoy the visit. We even got a free gift as we entered…lol…it’s a “Bing” branded “stress-ball”. Quite appropriate for stressed-out Windows users.

Maybe this adds a little balance. To Microsoft, the stores are a matter of evolving to survive now that Windows sales are down almost by half.

10.25.09

OEM Documents Which Microsoft Labels “MICROSOFT SECRET”

Posted in Antitrust, Dell, Hardware, HP, IBM, Microsoft at 6:06 am by Dr. Roy Schestowitz

Summary: Microsoft’s “OEM watch list” is out in textual form, with interpretation

TODAY’s Comes vs Microsoft exhibit is Exhibit px04275 [PDF], which we conveniently describe as the “OEM hit list”. Wallclimber has helped us clean it up, reconstruct tables, and she has also extracted all the text from it. The exhibit can be found appended to this post, but here are some interesting bits worth paying attention to.

What is the “Dumbo Plan”?

Dumbo Opportunity: Dumbo Plan was presented to Minolta, who is interested in this project and will have a presentation to MSKK to prove that they can do mass-production.

“Microsoft marketing and sales jargon is truly mind-numbing stuff,” argues Wallclimber.

Watch the resistance from Dell. The ultra-aggressive [1, 2] Joachim Kempin steps in.

Dell continues to reject our WFW proposals on the basis that our offer is a financial mis-fit with their “Build-to-order” marketing model and our per copy pricing is too high. Executive discussion between JoachimK and Joel Kocher yielded no progress.

Having looked at this exhibit, one regular reader of ours wrote: “It’s Microsoft’s “watch list” of OEMs and ISVs, so they can target those who stray from Windows, with their usual racketeering methods. The goal is 100% market saturation of pre-installed systems, and the method is intimidation and blackmail, specifically – the threat of revoking their right to distribute Windows systems if they support anything other than Windows (via secret MoU signed under NDA). Since the DOJ judgement, the new threat is a reduction of volume discounts on licenses, which then reduces the OEMs competitiveness. New method, same racketeering.”

As the items at the beginning of this document show, Microsoft pressures the already-impoverished companies in the East. “Interesting that the Far East OEMs were feeling the pain of deep price cuts while Microsoft’s revenue was exceeding their budget in most areas of the Far East,” alleges one person.


Appendix: Comes vs. Microsoft – exhibit px04275, as text


Read the rest of this entry »

09.25.09

Is Moblin a Microsoft-taxed Linux in the Making?

Posted in Deals, Dell, GNU/Linux, Hardware, Microsoft, Novell, Patents, Turbolinux at 2:54 am by Dr. Roy Schestowitz

Intel Pentium CPU

Summary: Moblin is a step forward for GNU/Linux, but software patents do not appear to be off the table

YESTERDAY we wrote about Moblin eschewing Silverlight, noting that it was (sometimes still is) based on SUSE [1, 2]. There is a complex history to it, which continues to present day.

As we explained two days ago, Intel is not a friend of GNU/Linux, but it must keep up with the competition, so Linux is not a platform that Intel can afford to ignore. Intel and Novell are quite close, as this very recent video of Guy Lunardi shows. Likewise, Intel is close to Microsoft, whose operating system it is constantly promoting these days; there is even collusion with Microsoft [1, 2, 3].

As we repeatedly showed, Dell had mysteriously joined the Microsoft/Novell deal very shortly before Microsoft’s patent attack began [1, 2]. Now we find this in The Inquirer:

Dell and Microsoft back Moblin

[...]

During her keynote at the show, Intel corporate vice president and general manager of Software and Services Group Renee James was joined by Ian Ellison-Taylor, Microsoft’s general manager for Client Platforms and Tools to announce the collaboration.

This partnership is expected to help developers write applications once and have them run across Windows and Moblin devices, expanding the reach of Silverlight from the desktop and into mobile consumer electronic devices.

“We see this as a clear extension of our current efforts with Novell where we are building an open source implementation of Silverlight called Moonlight that is targeted at the broad range of Linux–based PCs,” said Ellison-Taylor.

Heise has some more details and Turbolinux, which also joined Microsoft’s Linux racket, is mentioned in various places. This does not necessarily suggest that there is consistency here when it comes to “Linux tax” in Moblin.

Throughout its lifetime, Moblin swapped desktop environments and distributions several times. After the Ubuntu shuffle came OpenSUSE, but also Fedora was put at the centre about a year ago, before Moblin was passed over to the Linux Foundation. According to this, Fedora is still at the centre, which is somewhat baffling and the information may be out of date.

Atom-based devices can run Windows but also Moblin, an open source custom Fedora-based Linux operating system targeted at netbooks, handhelds, smart phones and car computers. Intel started the Moblin project in 2007 then passed it over to the Linux Foundation.

Then there is this press release, which suggests that Ubuntu is somehow magically back under the name “Ubuntu Moblin Remix”. Are there now variants of Moblin, too?

Sam Dean argues about the effect of Moblin on ‘fragmentation’, further adding or at least showing that Moblin targets device types that are almost dominated by ARM.

If Moblin becomes a serious player in open source mobile operating systems, it will contribute to a great deal of fragmentation. Android is just gaining its stride, and heading beyond just smartphones, while Google is likely to put big marketing dollars behind Chrome OS. It’s already announced that it is talking to hardware partners.

 

At IDF today, the first edition of Moblin Linux for smartphones were demonstrated. They could lead to Intel chip-based smartphones.

There is more information about the smartphones outreach of Moblin, which confirms that to Intel it is mostly about expanding to more hardware, not necessarily replacing Windows. Intel also intends to offer software shops and there is nothing wrong with that. The most interesting report speaks about Moblin coming to full-blown desktops.

Intel has expanded the scope of Linux-based Moblin by porting the OS from netbooks to mobile devices and desktops, where it could compete with Microsoft’s Windows OS.

In its latest filing, Microsoft told its investors that it worried about Hewlett-Packard and Intel turning to Windows alternatives, namely GNU/Linux in this case. It sure looks like it is happening. So to characterise Intel’s work on Moblin as beneficial to Microsoft would be absurd. But that’s not the point; the question is, will Intel bend GNU/Linux in the direction of becoming Microsoft-taxed, just like SUSE? This is hopefully preventable as that would spell a defeat to the freedom of Free software in the mass market.

09.19.09

Novell News Summary – Part III: Novell Wants BrainShare Renaissance

Posted in Dell, Mail, Novell, Security, Virtualisation at 3:14 pm by Dr. Roy Schestowitz

An E-mail

Summary: BrainShare 2010 hype, some news about GroupWise, Novell Teaming 2, and little more of the rest

SO, the biggest item this week comes from John Dragoon, who exclaims that “BrainShare Returns!”

Read the rest of this entry »

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