Novell (NOVL) Fell Below $5
- Dr. Roy Schestowitz
- 2008-09-24 01:11:54 UTC
- Modified: 2008-09-24 01:11:54 UTC
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Comments
Josh Bell
2008-09-24 01:37:12
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 01:46:05
HC
2008-09-24 02:18:00
Josh Bell
2008-09-24 03:00:07
Alec Baldwin
2008-09-24 06:09:38
All - if you reading this FUD article, take a look at the DOW Jones for the 18th of September... and Microsoft, and every other graph....
Mr Schareowitz - you're making an idiot of yourself.... again.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 08:44:49
I stated a fact and showed it. I didn't say anything about the market or about what this meant for Novell. Speaking of which, you might want to read this.
Josh Bell
2008-09-24 10:27:53
I saw the article, but you can't just take snippets of an article. Again you write without context. Even the Groklaw article you mention had nothing to do with cooking the books, it mostly had to other people's opinion such as Sam Varghese and others about the new additional 100 milliion not cooking the books.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 10:33:25
AlexH
2008-09-24 10:45:24
People buying at that low would have made ~7% on their investment already, which is a pretty handy profit over that time-frame.
Alec Baldwin
2008-09-24 10:46:40
And I clicked on your link above - and got more FUD.
It's sad that someone can devote so much time and energy to being so puerile, witless, one-eyed, and bilious.
When you publish FUD like this you gain a reputation for being a moron. It undermines your arguments, and it's surprising that someone academically clever, can be so dumb.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 10:51:43
Very much doubt it. In fact, my mate sent me this E-mail just an hour ago (to give you a sense of things): "Prepare yourself for the worst. the fed cannot pump one trillion dollars of public cash to subsidise the greed and failures of the corporate hoares on wall street. Hideous Inflation will follow then full scale meltdown, this is just a finger in the dyke, any market rallies in the next few weeks are just a dead cat bouncing. Wall street has been feeding off tomorrow for far too long, well tomorrow has just come home to roost, what a surprise."
See the link I gave at the top. Novell is among those who are clearly in trouble and their dependence on Microsoft's money will surely increase.
Love Novell? Learn to like Microsoft. Tough love.
AlexH
2008-09-24 11:06:28
American stock may have trouble in the short term. If you're an investor, you're more likely looking at the long term, and Novell's long term outlook is pretty disconnected from the short term turmoil we're going to experience.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 11:07:56
http://boycottnovell.com/2008/09/18/financial-depression-novl/
AlexH
2008-09-24 11:21:36
They have a large amount of institutional investment (large holdings make up 50% of the shareholding) and these are people who are looking long-term.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 11:36:50
AlexH
2008-09-24 11:43:26
There are two problems in the banking system at the moment: bad debt, based on mortgage assets being worth less than their valuation, and an unwillingness to lend each other money.
Once is a capitalisation issue, the other is a liquidity issue.
Novell, like a lot of businesses, would be affected by the lack of liquidity in the market as they would be unable to borrow money (or, their investors would be unable to) as they would normally.
The "trillions" (actually, only one, but I'll let that pass ;) you talk about are aimed at the capitalisation problem: with that, they will swap mortgage-based assets for Govt.-backed bond assets, effectively guaranteeing their value.
Now, once the banks have assets whose value is known and guaranteed they will be a lot more willing to start lending money again, so that indirectly solves the liquidity issue, but that's not where they're spending the money.
Hope that helps.
Josh Bell
2008-09-24 12:12:47
Well put. You explained that well.
Thanks :)
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 12:24:19
___ [*] http://boycottnovell.com/2008/06/02/novell-netware-balance/
AlexH
2008-09-24 12:30:32
Truly, this one man must be an oracle of our times.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 12:38:21
31-Jul-08 | 30-Apr-08 | 31-Jan-08 | 31-Oct-07
Total Assets | 2,656,913 | 2,679,323 | 2,771,538 | 2,854,394
Total Stockholder Equity | 1,167,497 | 1,221,210 | 1,198,826 | 1,158,326 Net Tangible Assets | $508,006 | $566,199 | $767,215 | $720,142
AlexH
2008-09-24 12:39:11
Reuters lists the consensus opinion on the stock as being outperform.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 12:41:14
AlexH
2008-09-24 12:44:38
The fact is that most analysts rate Novell stock as something worth buying. You can spin that until you're dizzy, Roy, but that's the consensus opinion.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 12:50:08
My dad and paternal grandfather is in this field. They don't rely on analysts, either. Analysts just try to make self-fulfilling prophecies or reasoned guesses.
AlexH
2008-09-24 12:59:15
Or, maybe, it's not a fact that the company is in decline, and they're willing to take a punt.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 13:01:56
AlexH
2008-09-24 13:04:49
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 13:08:05
HC
2008-09-24 13:11:24
AlexH
2008-09-24 13:15:43
HC
2008-09-24 13:19:01
Well Mr. Defender Man, let's see a sample of your other defense against other sites.
Josh Bell
2008-09-24 13:25:11
AlexH
2008-09-24 13:26:42
Just a couple of days ago, someone wrote a blog post comparing take-up of languages in free software.
Roy referred to this blog post yesterday as "a new study" because it used some graphs the blog writer created on Ohloh. Roy misread the graphs, and claimed that the blog post said C# was the only language not in decline. It made no such claim.
Today, we have a new article where Roy takes his claim one step further: apparently the original article "slags off Free software" (I challenge anyone to back that up based on the original links...).
This is what happens over time. Stories get posted here, twisted, re-cited again and again, and it's just a tower of nonsense.
You can call me names, I'm big enough to take that. But I notice that you're not willing to contest the validity of what I'm saying.
Dan O'Brian
2008-09-24 13:34:13
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 13:35:46
I don't bash Free software and if you bothered to look outside this Web site, you would know that I vigorously promote Free software. Novell-type patent deals are the single biggest threat to Free software.
AlexH
2008-09-24 13:40:54
Make a start by correcting the blog post that Zeth wrote about language take-up, you said it "slags off free software", which it doesn't. Zeth is a free software developer.
Dan O'Brian
2008-09-24 13:42:49
Spamming USENET with Linux Today and Slashdot headlines is hardly promoting Free Software. The people that read your little group on USENET already use Free Software, you are just preaching to the choir which accomplishes nothing.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 13:47:15
Dan O'Brian
2008-09-24 13:48:39
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 13:51:33
AlexH
2008-09-24 13:55:20
Where do they do that, exactly?
What specific criticism, based on evidence and not speculation, do you have of their service?
Dan O'Brian
2008-09-24 13:56:41
This is starting to remind me of the time you accused Mr. Steadfast that he lied in his Mono vs Java I/O comparison article, without actually bothering to check the evidence or rerun the tests yourself.
Instead you shot the messenger, same as you are trying to do here.
For someone who hates it when people shoot the messenger, you sure do it a lot.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 14:00:40
No! There's a misunderstanding here. :-) I'm referring to the study cited by Asay and Slashdot. There are two items in that post.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 14:02:07
It's nothing at all to do with Ohloh. It's about s study funded by enemies of Free Software: Kleiner Perkins
http://boycottnovell.com/2008/09/24/apple-doesnt-fall-far/
Bob
2008-09-24 14:16:46
As much as I dislike the logical conclusions of Schestowiz in the vast majority of his articles (I find them far too hasty to be acceptable), I actually agree with him that Mono is a danger to the free software community.
However I also believe in the existance of patents-that-cover-the-field-of-computer-software to be so vague that MS doesn't require Mono at all to harm software freedom; MS already controls software patents so vague that using Mono as a trap is completely unnecessary should MS's aim to be "sue those that infringe our IP".
Dan O'Brian
2008-09-24 14:22:24
Dan O'Brian
2008-09-24 14:27:12
As you said, Microsoft do not need Mono in order to attack free software.
One could argue that Microsoft are less likely to attack Mono users/developers than others because doing so would harm them, not help them.
But let's also recognize that "Mono is harmful" is only speculation as there has been absolutely no damage done to Free Software due to Mono.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 14:30:20
"Some big Microsoft names are involved in the startup. Paul Maritz, who served as a member of the executive committee and manager of the overall Microsoft company from 1986 to 2000, and Pradeep Singh, who spent nine years at Microsoft in various management positions, are some of the major investors. So will Ohloh surf off into the sunset? Who knows, but it will be interesting to watch."
Oh great! Mr. "cut the air supply".
Former Microsoft employee (and source of FUD) also bought Koders:
http://www.linux.com/feature/133411 http://www.justaprogrammer.net/2007/12/02/comparing-the-ohlohnet-to-koderscom/
They try to gain influence in "communism", AKA "cancer", AKA "open source". Do you trust them?
They already speak about subjects like GPL as objects of authority. yes, 'Microsoft' is explaining the GPL to you.
I don't trust them.
Bob
2008-09-24 14:41:30
AlexH
2008-09-24 15:39:13
Their figures agree with a source that you cited.
Baby In The Bath Water
2008-09-24 20:18:59
As time goes on, it becomes harder and harder for Microsoft to make the claim without getting laughed out of court.
Note: this comment was posted from Novell's headquarters.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 20:34:45
AlexH
2008-09-24 21:21:13
They also claim Linux infringes their patents. Their sabre-rattling is not going to stop free software.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-24 21:28:01
mike
2008-09-25 01:10:50
Surely it wont destroy free software -- but no damage?
Free software is MS's *stated* 'enemy #1' ('biggest competitor' in business-speak), so their only interest is to compete against it -- vigorously. There may come a day when to compete they go `open source' too, but for now -- and their entire history -- is driven by very aggressive tactics. They have been and continue to be convicted of anti-competitive (and illegal) behaviour. So there is plenty of reason to be wary - not just whack-o conspiratorial reasons. While BillG is anywhere near the management and Crazy Steve Ballsup is still king, at the very least.
As for NOVL - clearly trending down (directly and vs nasdaq). Which is bad news for them, and may lead to them doing silly things.
AlexH
2008-09-25 07:17:35
The "sucking away resources" argument is very difficult to make. There are many examples of where free software has multiple implementations of a given piece of software - GNOME vs. XFCE being a really obvious one - and the thing is, they don't all do the same thing, and it's really worth having the diversity.
Mono is encouraging a lot of interesting development in the free software world. As one great example, we now have Vala, which we didn't have before. People who don't like Mono have no problem with Vala, and people who want to program in a higher level language than C/C++ have a new option.
I agree with you that it's generating a lot of not very productive debate, though.
Dan O'Brian
2008-09-25 11:24:12
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 11:26:57
http://www.gnome.org/~seth/blog/mono
Dan O'Brian
2008-09-25 11:39:26
Perhaps you'll note the disclaimer he posted at the top of his post and also the fact that his post is speculative, not fact-based. It's a bunch of "what-if's".
His only point might be the GPL problem he mentions at the bottom, but as he also mentioned, Mono is under an X11 license and so his issue does not even apply.
AlexH
2008-09-25 11:43:14
The situation over the four years since that was written has changed massively. So we don't even get to Seth's "Act 2":
That just hasn't come to pass. No-one who is distributing free software is unwilling to ship Mono, so no-one is disadvantaged.
Dan O'Brian
2008-09-25 11:50:09
Dan O'Brian
2008-09-25 12:07:08
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 12:24:14
AlexH
2008-09-25 12:26:18
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 12:28:53
AlexH
2008-09-25 12:33:02
Do you have anything further to contribute to the actual discussion about Mono?
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 13:08:41
Dan O'Brian
2008-09-25 13:21:09
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 13:26:36
AlexH
2008-09-25 13:57:18
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 14:01:26
AlexH
2008-09-25 14:03:34
Nothing you have presented thus far is even close to convincing, and the evidence against your position (free software companies happy to distribution Mono, etc.) is pretty overwhelming.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 14:06:25
AlexH
2008-09-25 14:15:07
The only "substantial" issue you've ever been able to raise is that your rattle Microsoft's patent sabre for them, ignoring the fact that:
- no distributor that I'm aware of refuses to ship Mono; including those such as Red Hat who have taken a very close look at the licensing; - the project actively avoids any code which could infringe someone's patent (Microsoft or otherwise); - the project is protected by OIN.
You're asking people to believe that Mono is trouble even though those with actual legal expertise say that it's not. I know who I choose to believe.
HC
2008-09-25 14:25:59
What are Eben Moglen's view on Mono. Or Richard Stallman's. And no, this is not some God complex. People like these are the ones who are most invested in FOSS for the right reasons. Not MS flunkies and apologists. I don't use Mono because it fails the smell test. Because of people like DeIcaza and his beliefs. Because of people like you who for no apparant reason somehow find all the time in a day to constantly barrage down on others opinions. And because of the very fact that Novell is involved. I can see Novell following in MS's footsteps perfectly. No innovation, just sabre rattling and FUD.
God I wish I could be paid to troll all day long!
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 14:26:23
http://boycottnovell.com/2008/06/19/mono-in-fedora-mystery/
AlexH
2008-09-25 14:33:26
There was a bar on Mono for a time while Red Hat's legal people reviewed it. That bar was then lifted when they were happy with the situation.
The default position is that free software is allowed into Fedora.
AlexH
2008-09-25 14:34:46
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 14:35:24
AlexH
2008-09-25 14:39:35
What was safe before continues to be safe.
HC
2008-09-25 14:42:53
That's it! No introductions. No explanations. So your esteem self posted just to let me know that poor Mono is under attack. Awww, I got news for you. Mono is funded by the richest corporation in the world, and supported by one of the sleaziest. So, no I don't buy your BS. You got anything else or will you just post another one liner to get the last word.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 14:44:13
November 2006, interview in eWeek with Microsoft’s Bob Muglia:
AlexH
2008-09-25 14:47:20
The basic fact remains, distributors do not have a problem with Mono, and they are aware of the Novell/MS deal.
Are you saying that Red Hat is deliberately putting themselves/their users in harms way? Or that they are doing it accidentally?
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 14:48:43
AlexH
2008-09-25 14:51:29
Microsoft don't get to say how we use free software, and they have no say in whether or not we can use Mono. It's not in their gift.
Free software never, ever relies on someone's "good intentions", whether that is Red Hat or Microsoft. Such software would not be free.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 14:54:22
HC
2008-09-25 14:56:02
Its the intent. Mono is subject to MS's whims. It will always follow the .Net implementation and cannot innovate on its own if it is to be a true implementation of .Net. That raises the question why all this effort is being made and money spent on playing Simon-sez.
And you don't/can't know whether or not Mono includes MS code or if it violates MS patents. You just made that up. Or did I miss something and MS opened up its code for everyone to review?
AlexH
2008-09-25 15:00:38
People with lawyers have looked at it, and are not worried about the supposed patents problem.
It's interesting that you don't answer the question about Fedora.
AlexH
2008-09-25 15:03:41
And no, I didn't make up the code/patents stuff either. It's Mono project policy to avoid patents, and if code were found to be infringing it would be removed and rewritten. That's no different to any other free software project.
And of course it doesn't contain MS code. No-one is seriously suggesting that, not even Roy.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 15:09:05
Also see http://boycottnovell.com/2007/12/02/patent-poison-and-gplv3/
As Vexorian (IIRC) said, I can envision that there will be a poor man's Mono and one you need to buy from Microsoft/Novell (for patents).
AlexH
2008-09-25 15:12:40
The first one is to a "Hello world" app. So, what about it - what's the point you think it proves?
And the second one is about how the sources were split up into modules. Again, what's the actual point you think this makes?
HC
2008-09-25 15:14:06
Having Cecil does not change anything. It just an implementation for something on the backend. Mono's API's will still be dependent on the reference .Net implementation.
And noone said Mono contains .Net code.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 15:14:43
AlexH
2008-09-25 15:19:33
I'm not sure that you understand Cecil, since its API is nothing to do with any Microsoft API.
And in terms of including .net code, if that's not what you were suggesting, what did you mean by:
?
AlexH
2008-09-25 15:20:15
Do you want to try to substantiate that a bit?
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 15:22:38
See http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Linux-and-Open-Source/Microsofts-OpenSource-Trap-for-Mono/
AlexH
2008-09-25 15:24:56
Are you saying that doesn't work in practice? Or is this more Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt about the Mono project?
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 15:26:07
You said Mono folks are aware of patents. Well...
http://developers.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/11/10/2055258
"So now not only do we have to wait for submarine patents on C# and the runtime, now they can hit us on anything in their API as well. Especially with the Novell deal, people ought to realize that MS is just waiting for a chance to use their patents against open source. This is turning a bad idea worse. Just say no to Mono."
What do you know about WinForm and ECMA?
AlexH
2008-09-25 15:29:24
Is there a substantive point you actually want to make?
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 15:40:30
AlexH
2008-09-25 15:51:12
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 18:21:34
AlexH
2008-09-25 18:33:07
It's easy to say "patents", "ECMA", "Winforms" and point at Slashdot commentary. It's not very convincing, though.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 18:46:53
AlexH
2008-09-25 19:09:42
If software patents were a problem, leading free software distributors would not distribute it, there are plenty of such examples.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 19:11:53
AlexH
2008-09-25 19:21:54
You're still not putting forward any argument of your own or any evidence to support it.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 19:42:20
AlexH
2008-09-25 20:17:54
You're still completely unable to articulate any coherent argument that Mono has problems. Meanwhile, free software distributors happily make it available.
It's no-one's loss except yours, because you're choosing to bash a free software project based on no evidence you're able to cite.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 20:21:37
AlexH
2008-09-25 20:29:30
Much of what you've written is simply documenting where Mono is used, and doesn't inform us at all about any proposed problem.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 20:35:26
You're stubborn and you don't want to be convinced.
AlexH
2008-09-25 20:40:20
I'm not willing to bash a free software project just on your say-so, Microsoft's, or anyone else involved in Mono-bashing, though.
You're asking me to believe that leading projects such as Fedora, Debian, Mandriva, etc. are all distributing software which puts them in danger and puts their users in danger. I choose to believe them over you for now.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 20:42:25
AlexH
2008-09-25 20:46:02
It's pretty safe to say that they didn't remove that package dependency over a legal issue, though. They did it as a courtesy to their users.
HC
2008-09-25 20:59:36
Why is it pretty safe to say that?
@Alex Fedora is not distributing Mono because it is safe patent-wise. It is only distributing it because Mono is on the protected-patent list of OIN. So, if a dispute does arise, a company being sued will have something to defend themselves with.
AlexH
2008-09-25 21:10:14
As for the OIN; that lends re-assurance, that is true. I'm not quite willing to believe that they're gambling on being able to win a lawsuit, though. It wouldn't protect them if Microsoft transferred their patent rights to a patent troll, for example.
OIN is just added protection.
HC
2008-09-25 21:27:08
AlexH
2008-09-25 21:37:22
Virtually all of these projects have specific policies to avoid patents where they are made aware of them, so you can be relatively assured that none of them infringe patents.
OIN is a layer extra deterrence on top of that. You can think of it like security: you don't do one single thing, like putting up a firewall, you take many precautions like also disabling services, making sure passwords are hard to guess, etc. Having many different defences makes it much harder for you to be attacked.
HC
2008-09-25 21:50:26
AlexH
2008-09-25 21:54:29
What I am saying is that the situation with Mono is not measurably different to the situation with many other projects. Software patents threaten many free software projects.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 21:59:45
To pretty much duplicate a Microsoft framework and use it as the basis and foundation of key applications is an issue worth debating.
I refer you back to:
http://boycottnovell.com/2008/09/20/mono-java-dotnet-analysis/
I also remind you that Microsoft needn't take legal action. All it needs is threat and constant FUD, of which it spread some in May 2007 and never retracted since. It's like 5 years of SCO relying on UNIX-Linux similarity (technical). It's perceptual and it's perpetual.
In 2007 Microsoft barked and showed its teeth, but there was nothing OIN could do, let alone the PF. It could only punish some lousy article in BusinessWeek.
Lastly, I remind you that technical similarities enabled (and still enable) Microsoft to do actual extortion, which the media hardly covers. It's collecting protection money from businesses. It didn't even need to take this to court.
HC
2008-09-25 22:01:09
AlexH
2008-09-25 22:07:35
@HC: had Java been free software at the time, I rather suspect Mono wouldn't have happened. However, it wasn't. Python/Ruby/PHP aren't really comparable, though (good tools that they are).
HC
2008-09-25 22:08:59
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 22:14:06
Time for you to catch up. ;-)
AlexH
2008-09-25 22:18:50
That article claims they're doing it for use of Linux, not Mono.
If companies are willing to pony up, that's their problem. Even if Linux infringes a Microsoft patent, it could be easily pulled out and people can make use of the OIN protection to dissuade others from suing them.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-09-25 22:21:46
http://www.linux.com/feature/31612
AlexH
2008-09-25 22:25:37
OOo is superficially similar to Office, Linux is extremely dissimilar to NT's kernel. Similarity alone doesn't seem to play a role.
The real point here is, if Microsoft are doing, why on earth would you be complicit in allowing them to do so?!
Free software projects must be protected. First, you're getting people to stop using Mono. Next, OpenOffice.org. After that, Samba, Wine, and C++. Very soon you'll have absolutely no software left.
No thanks, I'll stand up for the free software community instead.
Jumping Jack
2008-09-26 00:06:53
I think you'll find that applicable to certain people on this website ;-)
HC
2008-09-26 01:35:37
I think you’ll find that applicable to certain other people on this website . See what I did there?