Comments

• Jose_X

  2009-11-07 05:04:43

  Ballmer and co might be setting up (trying to set up) for positive news (after all the write-downs) to help the stock rise for a while to come. [Although it has risen noticeably since it's lows in the mid/upper teens]
  
  All the money they borrowed and companies they bought (which will lead to more layoffs) and cost cutting moves will help them. As will the accounting shuffling. At least in the short term.. if things don't go too badly.
  
  I hope I am wrong, but the stock has recovered from months back. The stock market game is about manipulating public opinion so that those without research and experience buy into the hype at high prices and sell at low prices out of a belief the company is doomed. *If* ordinary people were selling the stock these past few months, then those that were buying at these prices will want to take it higher. They have room to work with if Microsoft posts regular numbers as they have before. I think the savvy investors tend to play mostly on the same side of this zero sum gain.. like cowboys herding cattle for the slaughter. [I'm not following Microsoft stock too closely, but I worry Microsoft will pull all stops to help their stock once again sell at a high P/E.]
  
  Another thing to keep in mind is that a significant amount of the avalanche of stock options from the end of the last decade may have expired (I have not been tracking the numbers.. I'm also not an accountant). If so, this would tend to clear the path for a rise in price.
  
  Finally, there are signs that the market will continue to rise and even surpass it's high of 2007/8.. at least before pulling back again.
  
  May the antitrust authorities and Linux and who not continue to bite Microsoft and keep them off balance. Go Google. Down with Yahoo if they help MS. Go Oracle and IBM. Go Red Hat. Go SCOTUS with software patent neutering. Etc. I want the monopolies and that company's leadership broken up.

• your_friend

  2009-11-07 07:09:32

  Unfortunately, Microsoft has simply resorted to lying about sales. The Microsoft press is touting numbers about early sales being twice as high as Vista everywhere, not just Japan. This could be damage control or planned hype. Either way, it's doubtful that Windows 7 is having a Windos 95 moment.
  
  You can never tell what's really happening with a company filled with as many pathological liars as Microsoft is. How could there be such great news and Steve Ballmer be ignorant? Microsoft has lied about so many numbers that nothing they say can be taken at face value. Recent articles parading these alleged sales also talk about GNU/Linux as if no one were using it.
  
  Windows 7 has been out for so short a time that the numbers are meaningless even if Microsoft could be trusted. Two or even ten times zero is still a big, fat zero.
  
  There are other ways to fudge these numbers. Selective time periods, regions and artificial market segmenting, like they did with Zune statistics, is an easy one. They might have just made the numbers up. Who knows?

• Roy Schestowitz

  2009-11-07 10:16:58

  Yes, NPD does precisely this for clients like Microsoft.
  
  That's the same NPD which said Linux had 4% market share in sub-notebooks when the real figure is somewhere around 30%.
  
  There is not only the selection of time periods and shops in particular regions; there's also the option of offering massive discounts and as Oiaohm said (based on his experience), dumping of licences on him.