On to imaginary products

"In the face of strong competition, Evangelism's focus may shift immediately to the next version of the same technology, however. Indeed, Phase 1 (Evangelism Starts) for version x+1 may start as soon as this Final Release of version X."

--Microsoft, internal document [PDF]

Summary: The sale of Dell turns out to have been initiated by Microsoft, whose leading product (common carrier) is already having obituaries written about it due to the messages which come out from Microsoft

The manager behind the product which we dubbed Vista 8 has already been fired. It is easy to see why now that we have preliminary market statistics, just over half a year after the official release. Vista 8 greatly harmed OEMs such as Dell (Dell too has complained) and this new report says that Microsoft is paying Dell [1, 2, 3] to encumber PCs with Vista 8, leaving the customers out of the loop.

The terms of Microsoft's $2 billion loan into the war chest of Denali Holdings, the Dell private buyout entity led by Michael Dell and Silver Lake Partners, are now public record. Microsoft's money was key in raising the $24.4 billion required to finalize the offer for Dell, but it's possible Dell will benefit even beyond the loan; the loan documents make clear that after the acquisition is complete, Dell will re-negotiate its payment terms for Microsoft software licenses.

So no longer is it mere speculation that Microsoft was behind Dell going private and selling out. "Windows Blues," as iophk calls it, is what we are seeing here. "Vista 8 is failing so they are already doing the N+1 thing," he adds. Here is a report about it. Talk about rush; this is motivated by panic. The Guardian says "PC sales plummet", but what it means to actually say is "Windows preinstalls plummet" (because of failure to evolve). "Biggest expectation is that update will revive start button familiar to users for 17 years before removal from Windows 8," writes Charles Arthur. But that's not really an apt summary. The real news is that Windows is plummeting to minority market share and Microsoft has no clue what to do about it. Here is CNET claiming "'Wintel' on the wane: Intel goes Google". The summary is as follows: "Intel has been synonymous with Windows PCs seemingly forever. But it's trying to change that in a hurry. Enter Google."

I recently had lunch with an Intel engineer who acknowledged this trend. Moblin and Tizen were not good enough as comeback attempts. Here is a criticism of what Microsoft is essentially doing right now. The author alleges that Windows 8 marketing fiasco deemed even worse than ‘New Coke’ and he starts with the obvious pitfall: "With the Windows Blue update on the way, analysts have already started writing obituaries for Windows 8, the operating system that proved to be immensely polarizing among PC users. While history will likely look upon Windows 8 more kindly than the widely despised Vista, Envisioneering analyst Richard Doherty tells The Financial Times that it will be remembered as the biggest marketing fiasco since Coca Cola decided to rework the formula for its famous soft drink back in the ’80s."

Here is IDG with some numbers:

Microsoft's own numbers show Windows 8 sales falling rapidly

Microsoft says it's sold more than 100 million Windows 8 licenses to date, but its officially reported monthly sales are falling off precipitously

Based on some numbers from IDC (part of IDG), despite a lot of money spent on marketing, Windows is a non-starter outside the desktop. ⬆