Bonum Certa Men Certa

The EPO Bubble — Part IV — A Cashflow Problem Looming on the Horizon?

Overview: [Teaser] The EPO's Deflating Patent Bubble and Pursuit of Illegal Software Patents (With Kangaroo Courts, UPC, and Bullied Examiners)

Series parts:

  1. The EPO Bubble — Part I — An “Unprecedented Surge”
  2. The EPO Bubble — Part II — Signs of a Deflating Bubble?
  3. The EPO Bubble — Part III — Dividing Up the Spoils...
  4. YOU ARE HERE ☞ A Cashflow Problem Looming on the Horizon?


EPO Dukatenesel
Is the legendary EPOnian "Dukatenesel" at risk of developing constipation?



Summary: The EPO has become unsustainable since the days of Benoît Battistelli as suitably-qualified examiners left in droves, new suitably-qualified examiners are impossible to recruit, and quality of patents plunged along with compliance rates; the revenue incurred by handing out hundreds of thousands of fake European Patents was just a temporary 'luxury'; the EPO is in fact being destroyed by managers who break the law, violate constitutions, and trash treaties/conventions

In the last part we saw how both the senior management of the EPO and their "friends" on the Organisation’s governing body - the Administrative Council - have a "vested interest" in a high level of granted patents.



Any developments which impact negatively on the number of grants will threaten the lucrative cashflow from EPOnia’s “Dukatenesel” and are likely to be a cause for concern in these circles.

"Any developments which impact negatively on the number of grants will threaten the lucrative cashflow from EPOnia’s “Dukatenesel” and are likely to be a cause for concern in these circles."As we noted in the second part of the series, the number of grants at the EPO took a significant downturn in 2020 and 2021. This downward trend is expected to continue during 2022 because of ongoing industrial action by the EPO staff union SUEPO.

In the normal course of events it takes some time before the renewal fees due at national offices are paid and, likewise, before the national offices hand over the EPO’s share.

"In the normal course of events it takes some time before the renewal fees due at national offices are paid and, likewise, before the national offices hand over the EPO’s share."Because of this, there will typically be a time lag of one or more years before changes in the number of granted patents give rise to any visible impact on NRF revenues.

For this reason, the impact of the recent downturn in EPO "production" is not yet visible in the EPO’s NRF revenue for 2021 (reported as € 640,71 million). However, if the "grant bubble" were to continue deflating, this would inevitably lead to a stagnation or drop in future NRF revenues.

EPO NRF revenue
The downturn in the number of grants is not yet reflected in the EPO’s NRF revenue figures. However, if the "grant bubble" continues to deflate, this will inevitably lead to a stagnation or drop in future NRF revenues.



In other words, a sustained decline in the level of granted patents over the course of the coming years would ultimately lead to a decline in the level of NRF revenues accruing to both the EPO and its contracting states.

"Against this background, it becomes apparent that EPO management has strong motives for trying to prop up the "grant bubble" and stave off any impending decrease in NRF cashflow."Such a development obviously has worrying implications for all those dependent on the largesse of EPOnia’s legendary "Dukatenesel".

Against this background, it becomes apparent that EPO management has strong motives for trying to prop up the "grant bubble" and stave off any impending decrease in NRF cashflow.

In the next part, we shall explain why insiders have good reason to believe that Team Campinos is currently gearing up to take "pre-emptive action" in this regard.

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