Bonum Certa Men Certa

GAFAM Not Invincible

posted by Roy Schestowitz on Sep 11, 2024

Melbourne City from Rialto Observation Deck

LAST week we said we'd take a temporary break from statCounter and explained why (the main reason was, the media was already catching on). We want to just make the rare exception and point out that Yandex usage seems to be soaring in Russia (huge boost since the arrest/detainment of Telegram's founder in France), Google is down to new lows, and Microsoft's share is less than half what it was when the LLM hype began. In a nutshell or a screenshot:

Search Engine Market Share Russian Federation

The trends are similar in China (with Baidu instead of Yandex, obviously), which means that in a "bipolar" or "multi-polar" world (with more than a single superpower) we see a sort of split if not a hyperscale Balkanisation of the Net (and Web). It's defined as: "If you disapprove of the division of a country into separate independent states, you can refer to the Balkanization of the country." This is happening at a global scale to the Internet, hence we say hyperscale. In Europe, Yandex is now almost as big as Microsoft. On an international scale, Yandex has reached an all-time high. People outside Russia use it too. Google is measured below 90% for the first time since 2015, i.e. 9 years ago.

Do not wrongly assume that the future of tech is all GAFAM. Apple has just been slapped with a huge fine in the EU (it would cost about a quarter of the money Apple can raise by selling its assets), Intel is collapsing, Microsoft is all bubble (and massive debt), Amazon has growing pains etc. China is rapidly making its own brands more mainstream, both on the hardware and software sides.

The US has an election very soon and Microsoft is already bribing candidates for deregulation and favours, based on press reports. They want to be bailed out and be permitted to break the law. It's not a sustainable strategy, it's daytime robbery.

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