Quantum Computers Are "All the Rage" (35 Years Ago, What IBM Promises This Year is What People Promised When the CEO Was in His 20s)
"Quantum" hype is high on the agenda, seeing that IBM's shares are collapsing again. Someone has just linked to some vapourware puff piece from Microsoft's MSN and said: "If you believe this stuff will be available in 2029, then you'll believe anything and... I have bridge to sell you in London. No mention of Arvind's golden boy, Dario in this article. BUT... What happens if the fabled quantum computers fail to materialize in 2029 ? Where will Arvind and Dario be ? Basking in the sun somewhere in the Caribbean or hiding from the Italian Mafia underground ? After all, a billion dollars is a lot of $$$. ($10 billion is even more). LOL."
Someone responded a few minutes ago: "If you conducted an anonymous survey of the scientists and engineers who actually work in the field of Quantum Computing and asked the question, "will commercially viable fault tolerant Quantum Computers exist in 2029?" - 100% of them will answer "NO". Again, that's assuming it's anonymous and assuming they can somehow be assured than an honest answer will not reduce funding flowing into the field."
As we emphasised and showed just earlier this week, predictions of imminent or foreseeable Quantum Computers go a very long way back. None have materialised.
Quantum Computers were mentioned as "on the way" when I was a Computer Science student in 2000 (i.e. 26 years ago) and Quantum Computers as a potential product go back to the mid-90s (i.e. 3+ decades ago).
In Wikipedia this dates back to 1992:
IBM has nothing to show. █
