Bonum Certa Men Certa

Is Novell Too Microsoft-Dependent?

From the Shocking Revelations Department...

Larry Dignan is alleging that Novell is too heavily reliant on their partners, Microsoft:

Most of that pop came a quarter ago. For the second quarter Linux invoicing declined 75 percent from the first quarter. Sure it’s up a bunch from a year ago, but that’s a way easy comparison. Non-Microsoft related pieces of the Linux business fell 39 percent in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

Playing with the numbers, SUSE sales without Microsoft had an invoice total of $11 million compared to the $29 million figure reported. The remainder of that sum is Microsoft.


It appears that analysts are also quite concerned about Novell's reliance on Microsoft as their #1 channel partner:

Credit Suisse analyst Jason Maynard said in a research note that Novell’s organic Linux growth is worrisome. Says Maynard:

“Given the lack of organic Linux invoicing growth, we think it is doubtful that Novell’s Linux business will be a source of cash flow unless Microsoft buys more licenses or emerges as a meaningful channel for Linux sales. We however remain skeptical that Microsoft will become a champion of Open Source software.”


Some folks are just too cynical.

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