Bonum Certa Men Certa

Microsoft Death Watch -- GNU/Linux to Blame

"Client software felt the slump in PC sales, and was further harmed by the shift to netbooks; many of these run Linux, which helps Microsoft not at all."

--Ars Technica



"Microsoft, like much of the IT industry, was caught off-guard by the rapid rise of the netbook category, but moved quickly to offer a netbook-specific version of XP Home to stem the tide of Linux on netbooks. When one considers that getting some revenue is better than getting none, that was a wise move."

--CRN



"Search engines be da**ed, it's the OS that generates money - if the world switches to linux, it will switch to OpenOffice too."

--Motley Fool (heavily Microsoft-influenced)



"Microsoft can't charge $80 or $100 when there's Linux for free on netbooks," Rosoff said. On regular PC sales, Microsoft's profit margins are typically about 70 percent to 80 percent, he explained."

--Microsoft Press



WE WROTE ABOUT Microsoft's latest defeat several days ago [1, 2] and will continue to do so later. Apart from the new quotes above, worth paying attention to is the following article, which predicts that "There may not be much left [of Microsoft] in two years time."

Here is the prediction I'm hesitant about. Always in the past when software with substantial installed base has finally been supplanted the fall has not been gradual: Lotus and Wordperfect went from world-beaters to also rans in just a few years. I think Microsoft may surprise us by falling equally fast. There may not be much left in two years time.


Could Microsoft be heading towards $4? Everything is possible. Just witness how quickly giants like Sun Microsystems have fallen; none of this is linear, much like the network effect. Proprietary software loses its margin advantage very rapidly and a panicky shift to Free software is in some situations a case of "too little, too late." Novell understands this too.

GNU and Linux

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