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schestowitz-TROffice for National Statistics (ONS) Entered Into Propaganda Business? 23 00:04
-TechrightsBN/ » Blog Archive » Office for National Statistics (ONS) Entered Into Propaganda Business?Jan 23 00:04
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schestowitzAI will replace academics unless our teaching challenges students againJan 23 05:47
schestowitzThat means to say plagiarism. Hardly a new issue; the media panic is reinvigorated by PR from MicrosoftJan 23 05:47
schestowitzDelivery of educational material chunked at the optimal grade for retention by passive student-consumers is ripe for automation, says Andy FarnellJan 23 05:47
schestowitzRight, but automation and "HEY HI" (hype) aren't the same thing.Jan 23 05:47
schestowitz[Albert Einstein head in a  humanoid prototype to illustrate AI will replaceJan 23 05:47
schestowitzacademics unless our teaching challenges students again]Jan 23 05:47
schestowitzSource: Getty (edited)Jan 23 05:47
schestowitzEinstein became a bit of a cult figure and mascot. Many of his theories did not turn out to be true. But that's me nitpicking.Jan 23 05:47
schestowitzThese past months have seen a wave of articles about a new kind of AIJan 23 05:47
schestowitzcalled large language models (LLMs), of which ChatGPT is the mostJan 23 05:47
schestowitzprominent.  The liberal progressives have embraced it, declaring thatJan 23 05:47
schestowitzits ability to auto- generate plausible-sounding text in secondsJan 23 05:47
schestowitzstrengthens_the_case for 'authenticity' in assessment.Jan 23 05:48
schestowitzThis "wave of articles" is partly Microsoft spam. That helped distract from last October's layoffs and this month's layoffs. This is easily demonstrable. Microsoft keeps pretending to have "embraced" some future brands, such as "clown computing".Jan 23 05:48
schestowitz By contrast, the conservatives are doubling down on detection, proctoring andJan 23 05:48
schestowitzreference-checking. But both camps are missing the bigger question: ifJan 23 05:48
schestowitzyou cannot tell a machine from a genuine student, what makes you thinkJan 23 05:48
schestowitza student cares whether they're taught by you or a machine?  CriticsJan 23 05:48
schestowitzare quick to seize on ChatGPT's limitations. By averaging a colossalJan 23 05:48
schestowitztraining set of 1TB of text, containing 175 billion word-associationJan 23 05:48
schestowitzparameters, it responds to question in the style of an overconfidentJan 23 05:48
schestowitzsixth-form essay, with a strident, repetitive tone. Jan 23 05:48
schestowitzIt's large-scale brute-force plagiarism with some automation built in. Hardly new. SCIGen, for instance, is nearly 20 years old. But it didn't have Microsoft's PR budget to flood the media and brainwash hundreds of millions of people. The emperor is naked.Jan 23 05:48
schestowitzBut truth is not aJan 23 05:48
schestowitzreliable outcome of this process, as many examples haveJan 23 05:48
schestowitzhighlighted. LLMs lack even the most basic epistemic position and anyJan 23 05:48
schestowitzunderstanding of causation or structure.  Yet that doesn't matter,Jan 23 05:48
schestowitzadvocates argue. This is just a start. LLMs, notable because they areJan 23 05:48
schestowitzsuperficially human, have yet to integrate with other kinds of AI inJan 23 05:48
schestowitzthis rapidly maturing field. Once they do, they will be capable ofJan 23 05:48
schestowitzeffective reasoning '“ or its useful simulation.  The likely impact ofJan 23 05:48
schestowitzLLMs on labour markets is certainly underestimated.  ApplicationJan 23 05:48
schestowitzresearchers are already eyeing them for tasks such as retail, customerJan 23 05:48
schestowitzassistance, query and decision support. And their impressive abilityJan 23 05:48
schestowitzto interactively deliver short, informative responses, more succinctJan 23 05:48
schestowitzand focused than Google or Wikipedia, makes them strong candidates forJan 23 05:48
schestowitzteaching, too. Using current technology, adding speech systems forJan 23 05:48
schestowitzaccurate listening and expressive voice synthesis is almost trivial.Jan 23 05:48
schestowitzTeaching can be done by just reading books. But teachers exist because books are not enough.Jan 23 05:48
schestowitzAbout £5 an hour currently buys computing power to service five to 10Jan 23 05:48
schestowitzstudents simultaneously. Surely administrators will be falling overJan 23 05:48
schestowitzthemselves to replace teachers with bots trained in specific knowledgeJan 23 05:48
schestowitzareas '“ perhaps incorporating Douglas Adams-style 'personality'Jan 23 05:48
schestowitzadd-ons, allowing students to be taught by simulated Einsteins orJan 23 05:48
schestowitzFeynmans.Jan 23 05:48
schestowitzEconomics and teaching should be put apart.Jan 23 05:48
schestowitzBut as the cost falls, and as people become increasingly unable toJan 23 05:48
schestowitzdistinguish plausible-sounding nonsense from genuine wisdom, humanJan 23 05:48
schestowitzsuppliers will compete with machines in a race to the bottom. And theJan 23 05:48
schestowitzdisastrous consequences will not be limited to academics' bankJan 23 05:48
schestowitzbalances. As a systems theorist, I predict that this market forJan 23 05:48
schestowitzlemons, as economists call it, will run into the same problem thatJan 23 05:48
schestowitzdevastated banana production in the late 20th century: production ofJan 23 05:49
schestowitzsterile monocultures.Jan 23 05:49
schestowitzThis isn't even a new problem.Jan 23 05:49
schestowitzPositive feedback loops of mediocrity will kill off intellectualJan 23 05:49
schestowitzprogress by failing to reproduce innovative experts with coreJan 23 05:49
schestowitzdisciplinary skills. At best, we will be stuck in an endless recyclingJan 23 05:49
schestowitzof 'approved facts'. At worst, our ability to reason and assessJan 23 05:49
schestowitzknowledge claims will collapse, leave us sitting ducks for recruitmentJan 23 05:49
schestowitzand brainwashing by malign forces.  In fact, you could argue that weJan 23 05:49
schestowitzare nearly there already.Jan 23 05:49
schestowitzNot even ML was needed for this. I'm not so old, but hype set aside, we had all this before.Jan 23 05:49
schestowitzCredential inflation means that a degree is now considered aJan 23 05:49
schestowitznecessity, and many students are not so much thirsty for knowledge asJan 23 05:49
schestowitzanxious about being left behind in the red queen's race to grow theirJan 23 05:49
schestowitzCVs. Profit-hungry universities' response to this market has, at theJan 23 05:49
schestowitzextreme, reduced professors to poorly paid operators of degreeJan 23 05:49
schestowitzmachines that chunk educational material at the optimal grade forJan 23 05:49
schestowitzretention by passive student-consumers. Such a model is ripe forJan 23 05:49
schestowitzautomation and sublimation by LLMs, whose training data can be washedJan 23 05:49
schestowitzof anything too marginal.Jan 23 05:49
schestowitzThere's already a long but still-creeping threat of recruiters scanning for buzzwords like "IoT" because they have no grasp of technological substance.Jan 23 05:49
schestowitzTo save both our jobs and society, academics must go back to the future. At ourJan 23 05:49
schestowitzbest, we did not use to spoon-feed students, as we do today. Nor is that whatJan 23 05:49
schestowitzthey wanted. They came for guidance, encouragement and socialisation intoJan 23 05:49
schestowitzcollegiate life, already as full adults. We always had an implicit duty ofJan 23 05:49
schestowitzcare, but we also had authority to direct and judge.Jan 23 05:49
schestowitzThat sounds more like The Times than a hacker ;-)Jan 23 05:49
schestowitzI know, I know... language adapts to the platform/editors ;-)Jan 23 05:49
schestowitzIn my tutorials in the 1990s, anyone who sat in meek, expectantJan 23 05:49
schestowitzsilence was ignored '“ by me as much as by their peers. SomethingJan 23 05:49
schestowitzimportant I took from a psychoanalyst is that 'this doesn't beginJan 23 05:49
schestowitzuntil you have the courage to speak first'. A good professor is aJan 23 05:49
schestowitzsparring partner who aims to toughen up young minds through mercilessJan 23 05:49
schestowitzexamination of purported knowledge, a process continuous withJan 23 05:49
schestowitzresearch. And I believe many students still crave to be challenged '“Jan 23 05:49
schestowitzeven if they have lost the words to express it.  There isJan 23 05:49
schestowitzunquestionably a demand for passive inculcation, too. But in a worldJan 23 05:49
schestowitzbereft of benevolent intellects, trusted, respected human knowledgeJan 23 05:49
schestowitzcurators will command a premium like never before '“ possibly in newJan 23 05:49
schestowitzfreelance roles akin to those of consultants or therapists.Jan 23 05:49
schestowitzIt's worth noting troll and misinformation farms online. They too pose overlapping threats.Jan 23 05:50
schestowitz Jan 23 05:50
schestowitzWe will need courage to retake the ground freed by theJan 23 05:50
schestowitzmachines. Begging bowls in hand for grants and accolades, we'veJan 23 05:50
schestowitzallowed_ourselves to be bullied by MBAs with twice our salaries andJan 23 05:50
schestowitzhalf our IQs. But once we accept that AI will completely replace ourJan 23 05:50
schestowitzcurrent jobs as mouthpieces for statistically 'consensual truth', weJan 23 05:50
schestowitzcan begin valuing ourselves again.  By re-embracing our former statusJan 23 05:50
schestowitzas authorities and role models, we will become real professors again.Jan 23 05:50
schestowitzI saw "MBAs with twice our salaries and half our IQs" in another site the other day, maybe quoting or copying you.Jan 23 05:50
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schestowitz-TR"So yesterday my blog was on the front page of Hacker News. Twice. The comments were brutal, however some people politely pointed out some issues that I've brushed off in the past because it's difficult to interpret comments like "ur website is gay furry trash because I can't tell what is a conversation snippet lol"" 23 06:57
-TechrightsBN/ | Site Update: CSS Fixes - Xe IasoJan 23 06:57
schestowitz-TRwe are watching the above video ah the momentJan 23 08:33
schestowitz-TRit is long, but starts with a 2-minute roundup/overviewJan 23 08:33
schestowitz-TRvery concerningJan 23 08:33
schestowitz-TReven our "Transparency" orgs are lying nowJan 23 08:33
schestowitz-TRso where can I turn to data?Jan 23 08:33
schestowitz-TR5-6 Days Later Still No Reply From ONS; Statistic Regulator Receives Formal Complaint 23 08:33
-TechrightsBN/ » Blog Archive » 5-6 Days Later Still No Reply From ONS; Statistic Regulator Receives Formal ComplaintJan 23 08:33
techrigthssecThat's problematic.Jan 23 08:34
techrigthssecThey seem to hide the data in various ways, including through delays.Jan 23 08:34
schestowitz-TRswap=mem/ramx2Jan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRswapless servers can become a mess to manageJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRgnu/linux, recent buildsJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRthi is not a weaknessJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRdisk space is not expensive and not volatile (it can be)Jan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRcase: you run shit program, it asks for moar and moar ramJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRsystem slows downJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRyou realise something is wrongJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRyou can kill the process that's offendingJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRwhile ie eats up ram oom might have guessed wrongJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRbut it can take a lot of time to totally exhaust ramJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRand you can killlall from a remote terminal or machineJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRif xserver has been kicked to swap by thenJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRthen give things time to recover//rebalanceJan 23 08:50
schestowitz-TRAfter More Than an Hour on the Phone, "Standard Life" Says Pension Was 'Transferred', Refuses to Give Any More Information (Money Gone 'Missing') 23 10:01
-TechrightsBN/ » Blog Archive » After More Than an Hour on the Phone, “Standard Life” Says Pension Was ‘Transferred’, Refuses to Give Any More Information (Money Gone ‘Missing’)Jan 23 10:01
schestowitz-TRtruly scandalous. And I've wasted so much time on this.Jan 23 10:01
techrigthssecackJan 23 10:04
schestowitz-TRONS is Apparently Still Undercounting UK Deaths, Reality Likely a Lot Worse Than Stated 23 10:16
-TechrightsBN/ » Blog Archive » ONS is Apparently Still Undercounting UK Deaths, Reality Likely a Lot Worse Than StatedJan 23 10:16
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schestowitz-TRUK: 30% More Deaths Than Expected 23 20:11
-TechrightsBN/ » Blog Archive » UK: 30% More Deaths Than ExpectedJan 23 20:11
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