Summary: Why it makes sense for SAP to scoop Novell up and carry on with the same corporate agenda

SAP is a close ally of Microsoft and probably its principal ally in Europe (Microsoft nearly bought SAP).

While Novell loses business in Kuwait, much to Red Hat's chagrin [1, 2] (more new links about it here), Novell gains a little in India, thanks to SAP, which has just acquired Sybase (Novell would be about 6 times cheaper to buy). From a news report we have:

The company has set for itself an aggressive plan to expand to 100 stores across India and has built its IT architecture using Novell Linux systems integrated with SAP and a point of sale software solution from Tiversity.

As pointed out earlier today, SAP can still buy Novell. SAP, Novell, and Microsoft have had a "triangle" as we called it two years ago. They all endorse software patents and strive to spread Microsoft-taxed SUSE at the expense of Red Hat. There is a war being waged here over the so-called 'cloud', which Novell's vice president of partner marketing and enablement commented on some days ago:

As Scott Lewis, Novell vice president of partner marketing and enablement, noted, "Ninety-five percent of the conversation is about cloud, but only about five percent is about implementation of cloud. Joining those worlds together is where were seeing some action."

SLES/SLED 11 SP1 is expected to come soon, but Novell is busy promoting Vista 7 now that its SP1 is seen as coming soon (and XP SP2 is expiring).

With all the new server iron being injected into the market, (and more to come later this year) and an impending release of Enterprise Linux 6 from Red Hat and the just-released Ubuntu 10.04 from Canonical, commercial Linux distributor Novell has to either put out a new version of SUSE Linux or crank out a service pack to keep pace.

There is still no word about SLES/SLED 12. Will it ever come out? Or will Novell be sold first? Either way, Novell is perhaps having one last blast in Europe. IDG's Dave Kearns will attend BrainShare next week and Novell's PR team mentions it very briefly (when not bragging about some prizes whose meaning is unknown).

EVENTS: This week (May 18-21) I'm at Novell's BrainShare in Amsterdam. Say "Hi" if you see me.

What if Novell takeover chatter takes over the event like it did in the previous BrainShare? Both events almost intersect Novell's financial results, which previously led to an attempt to buy Novell (details below). ⬆

• Novell May be Going Private, Hedge Fund Has Cash
• Analyst Expects Microsoft Bid to Buy Novell
• Ron Hovsepian Receives Another Large Lump of Cash as Novell Sale Looms
• GNU/Linux-Savvy Writers View Elliot Associates as Bad Neighbourhood
• Firm Behind Novell Bid Has Shady Past, Could be Tied to Microsoft (Paul E. Singer's 'Vulture Fund')
• Simon Phipps: “Seems Even With Microsoft’s Support Novell Couldn’t Cut It”
• Vulture Fund Still the Only Bidder for Novell
• Paul Singer Still Goes After Novell
• With Novell up for Sale, Novell Products Become Too Risky to Buy
• Novell for Sale