Comments

• Danielh

  2010-03-03 13:04:34

  I cant imagine the antitrust being stupid enough to allow Microsoft buying Novell. Its the only serious competitor to Microsoft in the realm of LDAP, policy management and file services.

• Roy Schestowitz

  2010-03-03 13:25:51

  Yes, but Microsoft can enclose Novell using a shell like Elliot and SAP, whose interests can better align with Microsoft's.

• JohnD

  2010-03-03 21:26:40

  The only two areas of Novell that are worth a premium price tag are Identity Management and it's patent portfolio. The legacy stuff isn't worth the dough (even though I wish someone would buy and revive Netware). Groupwise doesn't have enough market share to make it worth the money for IBM or M$. Anyone wishing to enter the space probably wouldn't have enough cash for a serious bid. Groupwise also doesn't have any real cutting edge technology to make it worth buying either. The only parts of the Linux area you can sell are support and the client list/support contracts. I think it'd be far cheaper to just generate FUD and go after the clients directly then to purchase the contracts. Identity is a hot topic these days so there would probably be more than a few companies interested in that piece. The real concern should be - where will the patent portfolio end up? Chances are it won't be with OIN. Sometimes better the devil you know than the one you don't.

• Roy Schestowitz

  2010-03-03 21:56:09

  I worry about the SCO lawsuit, the WordPerfect lawsuit, and other issues too.

• JohnD

  2010-03-03 22:08:35

  If the bean counters run the show, you can watch them disappear. Unless they are convinced that winning will more than cover the cost of litigation, they will find a way to end them quickly. Elliot's only concern is cash - not long term consequences. Despite their assertions that they "know" about technology companies I really don't think they have a clue what they are getting into. This situation is precisely why I never supported the boycott - you never know just how things are going to play out. We may not like the deal, but the industry needs Novell. Without it, M$ gets an even firmer grip on the industry. Now it's up to the Novell directors, if they think they will do better by waiting they will say no. If they don't they will take the payday and walk away.

• Roy Schestowitz

  2010-03-03 22:32:44

  Yes, there is that issue too, I acknowledge that. Remember that a boycott strives to change behaviour, not necessarily to destroy.

• JohnD

  2010-03-04 01:13:28

  Yes usually by depriving the offending party of something - usually money. Petitions, open letters, email and snail mail campaign can do the same thing without the financial impact. The colonies petitioned the king before they resorted to revolution. More recently there was the "Nuts" campaign by the fans of the TV show Jericho - the inundated the corporate offices with cans of nuts in an effort to keep the network from canceling the show. It worked if only for a season, but they did get a last episode that wrapped up the story. These other measures may have had a more positive, and possibly profound, impact on Novell. It's doubtful that they would have backed out of the agreement, but they may have changed other practices going forward.

• Roy Schestowitz

  2010-03-04 01:50:08

  John, I could use your opinion on something. Do you know who's behind the bid?
  
  http://hattie.typepad.com/hatties_web/2007/11/paul-e-singer.html http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Paul_E._Singer http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/22/us/politics/22singer.html?_r=3&oref=slogin
  
  I'll write about this tomorrow. See what you can make of it.

• JohnD

  2010-03-04 02:14:17

  As a rule anyone who gets involved in politics has an agenda. It may be good and altruistic, or self serving, but they have an agenda. While this is just a snapshot of the man it seems that his focus is on making money at any cost. That he's interested in Novell reinforces my opinion that Novell isn't doing a poor as some (including financial pundits) seem to think. He's offered 2 billion, but really it's only a "risk" of a little over a billion because of the $900+billion in the bank. Quarterly revenues are around 200 million so they are bringing in around 800 million/year. Right now they are retaining about 10% so profit/net income should be around 80mil/year. If it goes private they will be making decent money while they figure out how to break it apart. I seriously doubt they will infuse capital in order to bolster it's market position against M$ and Apple. They probably think the Linux stuff is something they can sell when in reality all they can sell is the support dept and contracts - I can't see anyone forking over serious cash for that. Identity and patents are the best areas and I can't see them going for over a billion dollars.

• Roy Schestowitz

  2010-03-04 02:56:13

  It's not just politics though. I'll show you tomorrow.

• JohnD

  2010-03-04 03:57:16

  I didn't mean to suggest it was about politics, but more that he has an agenda even if it's not completely clear yet. Get some sleep.

• uberVU - social comments

  2010-04-07 14:07:51

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  This post was mentioned on Identica by schestowitz: Analyst Expects #Microsoft Bid to Buy #Novell http://boycottnovell.com/2010/03/03/richard-williams-on-novl/...