2026 Starting to Feel Like 2020
Some nations have begun rationing water, food, and energy (the latter is most common, but they start with large consumers, i.e. businesses). 6 years ago, in late March, we had our first lockdown. I remember those days very well because there were so many unprecedented and surreal things; I remember the music I listened to, the conversation I had about the situation, even the last time we fed the water birds before "staying in".
As noted earlier, it doesn't look like safe passage of ships with oil/gas is imminent; another escalation in the war seems more likely right now. It's 8PM here (BST) and according to the BBC Mr. Cheeto (who sued the BBC and now openly threatens to jail American journalists for correctly reporting real facts about his war) set a "deadline of 20:00 on Tuesday (EDT) for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz."
That's not how negotiation gets done. He doesn't know the art of the deal, he's just a bully like hired guns who call themselves "defamation lawyers".
So what is likely to happen next is an increase in bombings, in war budget (at the expense of necessary things, including USAID and social security), and in turn a sharp increase in energy prices, begetting massive inflation across the board (food, housing etc.) and growing distrust among NATO members. Some people already hoard goods [1, 2] like many rich people hoarded electronic components. In some countries this results in massive strikes, which can in turn lead to social unrest/breakdown, even curfews or national emergencies, martial law etc.
Will 2026 emerge as another crisis year? Many nations have not yet exhausted their energy reserves and they don't talk about this for fear of causing panic and hoarding (alarmists in social control media stir up panic-buying).
The first casualty might be the "petrodollar". Can Wall Street survive this?
Attribution of this situation must go to the person who started it without bothering to even consult or inform traditional allies. █
Image source: Several sinks for visitors to wash their hands after picking flowers at the Carlsbad Flower Fields in California