Bonum Certa Men Certa

Is Net Applications One Order of Magnitude Off Target?

Summary: Another go at a comparison between truth and fiction

SURVEYS that encompass many Web sites cost a lot of money/effort/time to produce and the gain from them is mere unless a particular party gains. It is always very, very important to check where the money comes from. It's valuable to at least understand the business model.



Here at Boycott Novell, 45% of the pages this month are served to "Linux" (that's more than the equivalent figure for "Windows", where "Windows" is just the way it's parsed by AWStats, although there could be HTTP header modification because some people wrestle with stubborn IE-only Web sites).

Moments ago we wrote about the numbers from Net Applications and while we claimed that they were utterly wrong, we wrote nothing about what may be correct.

According to our reader, Chip, Net Applications claimed that GNU/Linux had a market share of 0.3% some years ago (subscription needed). In July of 2007 that's what they are said to have claimed. But wait. This has got to be wrong because it's highly inconsistent w.r.t. other figures we have. From the past couple of weeks we get:

Lies, Damn Lies and Linux Market Share Statistics

"The numbers from NetApplications are clearly unrepresentative of reality," blogger Robert Pogson told LinuxInsider. "Around 2003/4, IDC determined by survey that GNU/Linux was ahead of Mac OS at about 3 percent. Since then GNU/Linux has had growth numbers from 20 to 50 percent in various places.

"That would put GNU/Linux at 7 to 9 percent," he asserted.


There is also this:

usiness model is rebranding Windows executables and selling them to unsuspecting rubes.

A year ago Matt Assay said it was at 2.02%

ZDNet reported on Feb 24th, 2004 that the 2003 Linux desktop market share hit 3.2% and expected it to hit 6% by 2007. http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=5334 In 2005 they reported that the 2004 saw the Linux desktop at 4%. I believe that the all the ZDNet figures were spot on. If anything, the Linux desktop market share has continued to increase and is probably currently at 8-10% and rising. Dell and the other PC OEMs wouldn't have invested in selling Linux pre-installed if it appealed only to less than 1% of the desktop market.

It is quite obvious that NetApplications latest "report" is merely Microsoft's continuing attempt to control the news about Linux's success in replacing Windows on the desktop. It's not working... No one whith half an ounce of brain would take the bait on a "free" Win7 (a dumbed down version that can run only 3 apps at a time) that will deactivate after one year unless the user PAYS Microsoft to activate it. Win7 is NOT free.


As our reader amd-linux (from Germany) put it earlier today:

The thing is that NetApps gets a lot of attention from US/UK IT press, while other observations that show MUCH higher numbers and are equally representative are more or less ignored.

One example is OS stats on heise.de, which is THE mainstream IT new site in Germany. They have now 15% Linux users among their readers, and it would be way more if readers like me were in a situation to use Linux in the office where I read heise.de mostly.

Another example, if you question heise.de being representative is spigel.de which is one of the leading sites of the world (133 in Alexa) and a mainstream news website. Here Linux has around 4%-6%, coming from nearly nothing 2 yrs ago. While spiegel.de is a German news site, is is read from around the world like the BBC site.

It is IMHO safe to assume that Linux worldwide is closer to 2 % than to 1%. The only source who could reliably shed some light on this would be Google, but they refuse to publish any numbers.

But the best, and this nobody can ignore, is the trend. Linux usage is virtually exploding with growth in the double digit percentage area quarter per quarter.


Readers can decide for themselves what the installed base of GNU/Linux really is. We only present some evidence here.

Comments

Recent Techrights' Posts

Saudi Arabia and Its Footprint in X/Twitter
a massive proportion of pro-ISIS accounts in Twitter were operated from Saudi Arabia or by Saudi Arabians
Imposters Inheriting Institutions
Dealing with the "imposter syndrome"
 
Mono as a Double-Purpose Trojan Horse Inside Wine
And now they can oust founders and top contributor with a CoC
This is How Bad Things Have Become at Microsoft
We're seeing nearly 80 reports in English about those layoffs
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Thursday, September 12, 2024
IRC logs for Thursday, September 12, 2024
Links 13/09/2024: Recorded Future Bought by MasterCard, Bits of Freedom Turns 25
Links for the day
Gemini Links 13/09/2024: Towards Aristocratic Personal Computing, Technology and Privac
Links for the day
Once Again, Mass Layoffs at Microsoft (Just Like Every Month This Year)
Reporting and articles trickling in (in recent hours)
Rumour: Layoffs in IBM Consulting Today
IBM has had many layoffs lately
Microsoft Has Infiltrated the OSI and Its Moles (Whom It Pays to Speak 'for' OSI) Control the Narrative
This is utterly grotesque
Links 12/09/2024: Apple Owes a Lot of Money, Repressions and Censorship of Activists Noted
Links for the day
Anniversaries Coming Up
Probably the funnest year of our lives, and definitely the most productive
In Europe, Vista 11 Grew Only 3% (Relative to Other Windows Versions) This Year
That's a huge problem for Microsoft
Google's YouTube Censorship Has Gotten a Lot Worse and Anti-scientific (for Commercial Reasons)
By today's standards, YouTube is not something RMS can (or would) use
Google Appears to Have Broken Every Single Instance of Invidious. It's a Wake-up Call, Please Stop Uploading Videos to YouTube.
Including videos of Free software events
[Meme] Video Uploads Improved
The tools are all in our self-hosted Git repository and the licence is, as usual, AGPLv3
Apple Event as Fine Example of the "IT" Circus
It's not clear if the enemy of Free software is a company like Apple is simply public ignorance that Apple keeps fostering
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Wednesday, September 11, 2024
IRC logs for Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Gemini Links 12/09/2024: Clean Island and VCFMW19
Links for the day
Links 11/09/2024: EPO Patents Tossed Out by Courts, Software Patent Reveals Ford "Tech That Listens to Driver Conversations to Serve Ads"
Links for the day
More "Linux" SEO SPAM, Wrapped Up as Clown Computing, Composed by a "Bullshit Generator" (LLM)
linuxsecurity.com at it again this week
"Linux" and Linux.com Diploma Mill
The front page of Linux.com right now is the usual nonsense
[Meme] The Ponzi Scheme That Eats Rivals (by Paying Them to Stop Competing)
Why compete when you can bribe and defang antitrust authorities?
In 2006 We Had a Novell Problem and Now We Have Several Novells
Microsoft thorns inside the community
Richard M. Stallman (RMS) Debunks Misconceptions About What Free Software Means and Explains How It Works
Free software means people (including users and developers) exercise control over the program, not the programmers
Links 11/09/2024: ROOPHLOCH Report, Small Web Experiences, and Cohost Effectively Dead
Links for the day
Links 11/09/2024: Russia Enters Latvia With Drone, Truth Social Stock Crashes
Links for the day
Certificate Authority Let's Encrypt Has Fallen From 12% in Geminispace to Just 1.2% in Two Years (Capsules Usually Self-Sign Their Certificates)
Don't ask the imposters about security
The "IT Industry" is Full of Imposters (It's a Growing Crisis)
They often manage the companies
Richard Stallman Explains Stochastic Parrots (LLMs)
From his latest talk
The Toys of Today's Kids and Coordination Woes, Not to Mention a Lack of Social Skills
Too much time indoors, too much screen time
Dispelling the Notion That Microsoft is Political Left
Microsoft not only got bailed out (several times) by Donald Trump but also approached him to take over TikTok without paying for it
Linus Torvalds, the Son of a Politician, Tries to Stay Out of Politics (or Political Topics)
"I'm just a geek" has its limits in practice
Richard Stallman Still Deals With Politics
Stallman's gonna Stallman
GAFAM Not Invincible
The US has an election very soon and Microsoft is already bribing candidates for deregulation and favours, based on press reports
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Tuesday, September 10, 2024
IRC logs for Tuesday, September 10, 2024
The Greatest Show on Earth (Buzzwords Circus)
What next? Being denied medical service because you don't have a Facebook account?
Gemini Links 11/09/2024: Happiness, Improvised Nebuliser, and olden Age of Palm OS
Links for the day