There is some excellent analysis by Pieter, which one of our readers has encouraged us to share.

The first bit about Acacia:

It's a neat structure. Pump money into Acacia so it can attack Red Hat, and at the same time prove to the world how strong the Microsoft patent shield really is against those naughty, naughty trolls.

If this works with Acacia, perhaps we can expect a scaled-up attack by Intellectual Ventures on Linux users like Google and IBM.

The second is a more detailed analysis involving more parties. It explains how the developments in Europe related to the bigger picture.

The future of open source and free software will look like this: first, Microsoft will pump money into its franchiseware economy and get very little back. Second, IBM will do the same with its own franchiseware economy (the Apache Foundation) and get a lot more back, because IBM actually understand how this works. Last, all remaining projects will move to the GPL, with a few exceptions. And it's that economy, the one based on formal copyleft licenses, and backed by increasing determination to litigate and defend against litigation, that will prevail.

Like every actor that thinks it's conducting the orchestra, Microsoft is as much a puppet of circumstance as any one of us.

This is a much larger post that is worth reading as a whole. It makes excellent observations with regards to the present state of affairs, which has become complex.