Bonum Certa Men Certa

Is Net Applications One Order of Magnitude Off Target?

Summary: Another go at a comparison between truth and fiction

SURVEYS that encompass many Web sites cost a lot of money/effort/time to produce and the gain from them is mere unless a particular party gains. It is always very, very important to check where the money comes from. It's valuable to at least understand the business model.



Here at Boycott Novell, 45% of the pages this month are served to "Linux" (that's more than the equivalent figure for "Windows", where "Windows" is just the way it's parsed by AWStats, although there could be HTTP header modification because some people wrestle with stubborn IE-only Web sites).

Moments ago we wrote about the numbers from Net Applications and while we claimed that they were utterly wrong, we wrote nothing about what may be correct.

According to our reader, Chip, Net Applications claimed that GNU/Linux had a market share of 0.3% some years ago (subscription needed). In July of 2007 that's what they are said to have claimed. But wait. This has got to be wrong because it's highly inconsistent w.r.t. other figures we have. From the past couple of weeks we get:

Lies, Damn Lies and Linux Market Share Statistics

"The numbers from NetApplications are clearly unrepresentative of reality," blogger Robert Pogson told LinuxInsider. "Around 2003/4, IDC determined by survey that GNU/Linux was ahead of Mac OS at about 3 percent. Since then GNU/Linux has had growth numbers from 20 to 50 percent in various places.

"That would put GNU/Linux at 7 to 9 percent," he asserted.


There is also this:

usiness model is rebranding Windows executables and selling them to unsuspecting rubes.

A year ago Matt Assay said it was at 2.02%

ZDNet reported on Feb 24th, 2004 that the 2003 Linux desktop market share hit 3.2% and expected it to hit 6% by 2007. http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=5334 In 2005 they reported that the 2004 saw the Linux desktop at 4%. I believe that the all the ZDNet figures were spot on. If anything, the Linux desktop market share has continued to increase and is probably currently at 8-10% and rising. Dell and the other PC OEMs wouldn't have invested in selling Linux pre-installed if it appealed only to less than 1% of the desktop market.

It is quite obvious that NetApplications latest "report" is merely Microsoft's continuing attempt to control the news about Linux's success in replacing Windows on the desktop. It's not working... No one whith half an ounce of brain would take the bait on a "free" Win7 (a dumbed down version that can run only 3 apps at a time) that will deactivate after one year unless the user PAYS Microsoft to activate it. Win7 is NOT free.


As our reader amd-linux (from Germany) put it earlier today:

The thing is that NetApps gets a lot of attention from US/UK IT press, while other observations that show MUCH higher numbers and are equally representative are more or less ignored.

One example is OS stats on heise.de, which is THE mainstream IT new site in Germany. They have now 15% Linux users among their readers, and it would be way more if readers like me were in a situation to use Linux in the office where I read heise.de mostly.

Another example, if you question heise.de being representative is spigel.de which is one of the leading sites of the world (133 in Alexa) and a mainstream news website. Here Linux has around 4%-6%, coming from nearly nothing 2 yrs ago. While spiegel.de is a German news site, is is read from around the world like the BBC site.

It is IMHO safe to assume that Linux worldwide is closer to 2 % than to 1%. The only source who could reliably shed some light on this would be Google, but they refuse to publish any numbers.

But the best, and this nobody can ignore, is the trend. Linux usage is virtually exploding with growth in the double digit percentage area quarter per quarter.


Readers can decide for themselves what the installed base of GNU/Linux really is. We only present some evidence here.

Comments

Recent Techrights' Posts

IBM's "Next Step" Program
Apparently close to 1,000 people being laid off by IBM wasn't worth reporting
If GNU/Linux Rising is Just "Bots" (It's Not, Many Surveys Show the Same), Why Does Microsoft Rush to Lie About System Requirements of Vista 11?
The real reason is, GNU/Linux is rising
 
Improving the Static Site Generator (SSG), Fixing Bugs
Next month the site's SSG turns 3
Gemini Links 09/08/2026: Meatballs (1979), Gopher, RSS Experiment
Links for the day
2026: The Year Richard Stallman Came Back to American Campuses
There's more on the way
XBox is Rotting Away, Technical Issues for Second Time in Two Weeks
XBox is dying
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Saturday, August 08, 2026
IRC logs for Saturday, August 08, 2026
Red Hat is in Need of a 'Jolla', as an IBM-Controlled Red Hat is Becoming Like the Microsoft-Infiltrated Nokia
Dying fast, partly by design
Gemini Links 08/08/2026: Gigs, Poems, SREs, and Shared Passion
Links for the day
Kompromat Tactics in GNU and Linux
Kompromat as a concept was covered here in the past in relation to Microsoft
SLAPP Censorship - Part 143 Out of 200: After Nearly 10 Attempts to Settle With Us and Over a Million Pounds Spent on Lawyers and Barristers
We are in no particular hurry
20 Years and 43 Years
GNU/Linux is not just code, it's a philosophy, licence (copyleft), and community
GNU/Linux Turns 43 Next Month, Many Distros Actively Maintained
A lot of Debian-based distros are still actively maintained (we talk about this in IRC this evening), so the stability of the Debian Project is important
Links 08/08/2026: GAFAM Colonialism "Paved Over Protected Wetlands", Slop Companies Hoard Software Patents as Debt Soars to Trillions
Links for the day
Links 08/08/2026: "Palantir Paid No Federal Income Tax" and "Who's Responsible for This Mess?"
Links for the day
Retained: The Time IBM's Red Hat Tried to Hijack or Take Offline Site of Critics, Failed on All Grounds (Meritless Action Intended to Harass Critics)
Replicated from adrforum.com
IBM's 'Final Solution': Censor Sites Not Controlled by IBM, Sites Where Dissent is Expressed
IBM has no culture of free speech
More Mass Layoffs Coming IBM's Way (Ones IBM Cannot Hide, Cannot Convince Enough People to Leave or Unjustifiably PIP Them When They Say No)
The company that was like a "father of modern computing" is now stingy when it comes to travel. Not a good sign.
What Will it Take for Mainstream Media to Report Silent or Secret Layoffs at IBM?
"Silent" or "secret" sometimes because the media won't cover them
Is the Future of IBM Red Hat Temporary Staff, Contractors?
They want cheap, obedient lemmings
Gemini Links 08/08/2026: Tribute to Lloyd Center, Radio Amateurism, Homeworlds
Links for the day
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Friday, August 07, 2026
IRC logs for Friday, August 07, 2026
Microsoft Uses Slop to Find Defects and Then Uses Slop to Replace Code, What Could Go Wrong?
Botspam is the problem, it's not a constructive approach in any shape or form
analytics.usa.gov: GNU/Linux Up Some More This Week
Days ago it said 6.4%, now it's up to 6.8%
RA-pocalypse: IBM Tells Workers "Taking a Hike" is Their "Next Step" ('Voluntary' Layoffs), Now It Prepares to Sack Lots of Contractors
There definitely is something going on
Legal Attacks on Techrights Have Made Techrights More Popular and More Widely Read
The misogynists will have plenty of work to do this summer
Kai Stephens (Barkley Walsh) & British Democrats in Clacton by-election hustings
Reprinted with permission from Daniel Pocock
Daniel Pocock 'Punching' Nazis in the UK
The so-called "cult" of so-called "Debianism" was left with nothing but massive legal bills
SLAPP Censorship - Part 142 Out of 200: GemText is Not a Webpage, Gemini Protocol is Not the Web, and Capsules Are Not Websites
our intention to appeal (escalate to the Court of Appeal)
Microsoft: Our August 2026 Layoffs Are Not Layoffs Because... Reasons
That's like IBM making "spin-offs", then pretending that no layoffs are happening
Links 07/08/2026: UMG and Anthropic in Trouble Over Copyright Infringements Sold as "Training" (Slop)
Links for the day
Links 07/08/2026: "BMW Is Showing Commercials On Their Car's Dash Screens And They Want You To Think It's A Treat", Software Patents on Drones
Links for the day
What We Said About Red Hat's Fate Under IBM Turned Out to be Right on the Money (That IBM Lacks)
There are no layoffs at IBM
IRC Networks Show No Signs of Going Away, IRC Enters Its 39th Year
That IRC daemons are still actively developed and patched in summer of 2026 (over 38 years after IRC was born) says a lot about IRC's importance
Social [Control] Media Needs to Die
I am a bit shocked to recall that I wasted a lot of time on it
Some Malware is Legal Because It's Made and Distributed by Politically-Connected GAFAM
In reality, the security non-experts 'championed' (and salaried) by GAFAM are anti-security people who advocate back doors
The GNU/Linux Anniversary is Next Month, Not This Month
It'll turn 43
At Clacton by-election Hustings Event Daniel Pocock Says "Social [Control] Media Has Contributed to Some of the Anti Social Behaviour."
No doubt many problems in society are caused or at least amplified/accentuated by this horrible phenomenon
IBM Insiders Explain Why IBM is in Very Serious Trouble
Will IBM last long enough for any "quantum" deliverables to become a reality?
The Register MS Took Money From Broadcom to Publish Fake 'News' With "AI" Mentioned 35 Times
not legitimate or authentic journalism.
GNU/Linux Approaching 20% in Georgia (the Country)
Usage of GNU/Linux was near 0%, as measured by statCounter, several years ago
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Thursday, August 06, 2026
IRC logs for Thursday, August 06, 2026
Gemini Links 07/08/2026: Radio Amateurism, Summer Updates, and Programming "Taste"
Links for the day