Bonum Certa Men Certa

Novell Down Sharply Ahead of Tomorrow's Results

Sell Novell



THE financial results from Novell (NOVL) are due tomorrow and the stock is down over 5% at the moment (in today's trading alone). The main indexes are up, so it is not a trend that's shared across the board.



Before Novell's PR people come out to sprinkle some love and fairy tails on its shareholders, we ought to get the record straight by reminding readers of old facts:

  1. Novell recently shut down some offices across Europe


  2. Novell has a history of fraud


  3. Novell admits misconduct, in relation to its quarterly/annual reports


PR lies (see the ISV lie from last week) and come tomorrow, Novell will probably be lying again. Some might call it an embellishment or spin, but either way, press releases are designed to deceive.

Here are some reports that arrive ahead of the report.

1. The Fool's Look Ahead

Thursday

Novell (Nasdaq: NOVL) steps up. The networking specialist may not be the bellwether titan it used to be, but Novell has always managed to remain profitable. Analysts see the company posting a quarterly profit of $0.06 a share, in line with last year.


2. Reloading Another Rebound

Thursday: The pressure lightens up on Thursday, as only weekly initial jobless claims and October's factory orders are on tap. In earnings news, Toll Brothers, Williams-Sonoma (nyse: WSM - news - people ), Guess (nyse: GES - news - people ), Novell (nasdaq: NOVL - news - people ) and Wind River (nasdaq: WIND - news - people ) are scheduled to release their quarterly reports.


3. The week ahead

Thursday

Reports: October factory orders; weekly initial jobless claims

Earnings: Guess Inc.; Novell Inc.; Toll Brothers Inc.


4. Unusual (Buy-To-Open) Option Activity Ahead of This Week's Earnings

The ratios on Sears Holding (SHLD: View sentiment for SHLDsentiment, chart, options) , Toll Brothers (TOL: View sentiment for TOLsentiment, chart, options) , Marvell Technology (MRVL: View sentiment for MRVLsentiment, chart, options) , and Novell (NOVL: View sentiment for NOVLsentiment, chart, options) are very high (ranging between 87% and 98%), which are signs of pessimism.


"Signs of pessimism," eh? Well, whatever Novell says on Thursday must be taken with a big barrel of salt. Only a fortnight ago, Novell (along with Microsoft) pulled the numbers it liked best. And sadly enough, many reporter play it safe by being parrots.

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