Bonum Certa Men Certa

GNU/Linux Market Share: Why Gartner and IDC Must be Ignored

[reposted from my personal blog]

“Forty percent of servers run Windows, 60 percent run Linux...”

--Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO (September 2008)



CONTRARY to figures that account only for shipped volume and revenue (IDC), the installed base of GNU/Linux servers is very high. This is not to be confused with "market share", whose definition gets changed so as to serve the vanity of companies which directly or indirectly fund such market surveys. There is a lot of selective research and cherry-picking of methodologies.



GNU/Linux is very commonplace on servers. Virtualisation requires those servers to communicate between and within one another, either through open standards or 'interoperability', which is typically a two-way bridge. Microsoft is fiddling with companies like XenSource (now absorbed by Citrix) and VMware (now run by former Softies) to interfere.

In order to understand how GNU/Linux is doing against Windows on the server, a market survey would be required which is global. It is harder and more expensive to conduct a survey based on actual deployments (global in particular), as opposed to assembling and aggregating numbers of shipments from market leaders.

“In order to understand how GNU/Linux is doing against Windows on the server, a market survey would be required which is global.”One indicator of the success of Linux on the server is internal intelligence conducted and/or used by Microsoft. The company calls this -- albeit just internally -- "Linux heat map" (we have a copy of a court exhibit from Comes vs Microsoft [PDF]). Publicly, realisation of the GNU/Linux threat to Microsoft can be arrived at by interpreting the company's rhetoric and actions, such as threats of litigation, secret deals with Fortune 500 companies that pay Microsoft for their use of GNU/Linux (this is scarcely reported in the press and the companies refuse to identify themselves), and also disinformation initiatives such as "Get the Facts" and "Linux Personas" (defunct just days after debut).

GNOME server FSInternal documents which were revealed in the Comes vs Microsoft case not only reveal figures about market share in several areas. They also show the company's executives running frantic about what they called "Linux infestation". They said they were not on a path to win against "Linux", so they tried to manipulate Dell into dropping or neglecting GNU/Linux (on servers) and they also decided to commission studies which show GNU/Linux to be more expensive [1, 2]. Failing the first time, Microsoft argued, they can simply try again. This methodology fits well with tactics that are presented in internal Microsoft talks about "Effective Evangelism". One of the tactics is to manufacture evidence that you need and then reference it. Analysts can be compensated in many ways that escape the public eye, as detailed in the company's presentations (all endorsed by Bill Gates by the way).

In one of the documents disclosed in Comes vs Microsoft, Microsoft was seen explicitly asking IDC to remove signs of its sponsorship of a study. This study accidentally showed GNU/Linux (server) to be superior. Microsoft had similar studies conducted with market research groups like Yankee and Gartner.

It is worth emphasising that what challenges Microsoft is not just the market share of GNU/Linux. It's more complicated than that. As netbooks (sub-notebooks) have demonstrated, tough competition from Linux not necessarily leads to erosion of Windows' market share; instead, it rapidly leads to erosion of margins. Sources suggest that Windows has become virtually free (gratis) for some form factors, whereas in the case of servers, Microsoft has promotional means for advancing Windows not only through advertising campaigns. I have heard personally from Web hosts who were offered Windows for free so that they migrate away from GNU/Linux. In one case, the source was offered subsidies of hardware as well.

All in all, this comes to show that it's a multi-faceted issue which can be addressed and treated by considering questions like:

  1. How has GNU/Linux affected Microsoft's/Windows market share?


  2. How is market share defined?


  3. How has GNU/Linux affected Windows margins?


  4. What is the difference between perceptual GNU/Linux quality/market share compared to reality? There is room for distortion here and it is actively being exploited, as shown by authentic court evidence.


  5. How failure-proof is GNU/Linux? How many companies are involved in developing and supporting it? Symbian and Palm OS, for example, have a single breaking point.


As Chris DiBona from Google put it, "every time you use Google, you're using a machine running the Linux kernel."

Comments

Recent Techrights' Posts

Evidence Contradicting Microsoft's Non-Denying Denials and Expectation of Many Layoffs Soon
"Microsoft has had this constant drip of layoffs for months."
At Least 3 Richard Stallman Talks in Europe Confirmed So Far, Next Week in Rome There's Another
Dr. Stallman has not announced this yet
Rust is Eating Linux
That's a recipe for problems
 
Gemini Links 07/10/2025: Civil War and "Goodbye Web"
Links for the day
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Monday, October 06, 2025
IRC logs for Monday, October 06, 2025
The "AI Revolution" is Going Very Well, Right?
money that does not exist and alleged potential that is pure fiction
Links 06/10/2025: Scam Altman Himself Admits He Runs a Scam Based on a Bubble, US Administration Adopts “War From Within” Narrative to Crush Opposition/Dissent
Links for the day
Slopwatch: Fake Ubuntu 'Articles' and Google News Helps People Who Plagiarise Phoronix Using LLMs
Michael Larabel can't possibly be happy about that
6,000 Pages/Articles a Year
Today in one month from now the site turns 19
When Things Become So Ubiquitous That They're Almost Nameless
The notion or the concept of software freedom isn't tied to any particular brand or project, so it should still resonate
IDG Seems to Have Abandoned Sandra Henry Stocker's UNIX/Linux Column
Unless we hear otherwise or see some update/s, this may mark another death blow from IDG
Gemini Links 06/10/2025: Winter Nights and "Virtue Signaling"
Links for the day
Links 06/10/2025: Scientific Awards and Typhoon Matmo
Links for the day
IP Kat Gone Bonkers, Pushing Slop in Patents (Likely Illegal, With Severe Consequences)
AstraZenecaKat: "Last time, this Kat covered some practical steps on how to ensure client confidentiality when using AI tools (IPKat)."
Links 06/10/2025: Grokipedia as Malicious Slop, US 'Martial Law' a "New Normal"
Links for the day
Fake Economics and Clown Computing Circuses
who's gonna pay for these scams?
Nobel Prize in Economics Does Not Exist, It's Propaganda From Sveriges Riksbank
"It is that time of the year when it is important to remind people that there are no Nobel Prizes for professional wrestling, astrology, or economics"
Cindy Cohn (Executive Director of EFF) is a Millionaire, Earned Almost $30,000 Per Month Before Departing While the EFF Lost Money
EFF is "Big Business"
Non-Denying Denial From Microsoft (Again) Regarding the End of XBox Consoles
It's kind of hilarious that even the site chosen by Microsoft to relay its BS, based on past loyalty, isn't quite buying it
Bringing Back Lost Articles From the 1990s: Microsoft Products Leave Door Open to NSA
Nothing has changed since then
When the Slop Bubble Pops People Will Say Richard Stallman Was Right (Again)
What was once known as Computer Science turned into "IT"
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Sunday, October 05, 2025
IRC logs for Sunday, October 05, 2025
Links 06/10/2025: Science, Hardware, and Andrej Babis Making a Comeback
Links for the day
Links 05/10/2025: Slow News Day and Wondering About the Canada Post Walkout
Links for the day
Gemini Links 05/10/2025: Telnet Debugging and The Programmer’s Brain
Links for the day
More Than "Just a Rumour": XBox Seems to Have Just Died
At this point, why would any studio out there target or partner with XBox?
How to Tell Your Community, Project or Company is Being Infiltrated by Saboteurs
How to identify nefarious social engineering
The Fortieth Birthday of the FSF Made Us Extremely Happy
It feels like the 'hacker community' is regrouping to discuss things and prepare for the next Big Challenge
Chat Control 2 Them, Not 2 U
Follow the advice of Dr. Patrick Breyer
Mozilla: Throw Away Your "Old" PC and Enable "Digital Rights Management (DRM)"
This is heading in a bad direction
Controlling Our Computing for Another Forty Years
40 years of freedom
Motivational Small Place to Run Large Sites
We deem this scenery motivational and inspiring
Techrights' Text Version (Daily Bulletin) Turns Five This Month
our plain-text bulletins are turning 5 this month
We'll Continue Covering the Moribund OSI and Other Dysfunctional if Not Hostile Institutions
Stefano Maffulli's departure is due to his defection and due to him failing the mission in pursuit of money (his salary)
Microsoft XBox is Dying as More Retailers Stop Stocking It and Massive Layoffs Planned Again
Microsoft is circling down the drain
Links 05/10/2025: Lufthansa Layoffs (4,000) and More Spotify Woes (Aside From Massive Debt)
Links for the day
The Free Software Foundation's Livestream Has Ended, Video/s Might be Online Next
I've asked whether they'll upload video of some of the event; I still wait for an answer
The Register MS Does Not Know the Difference Between Microsoft GitHub and GitLab
At the time of writing (October 5) the article from "Thu 2 Oct 2025" remains uncorrected
Linux and the Freedom Paradox
Linux is losing freedom if some external actors who only use Microsoft tools for development wrest control
"Bullshit Generators" (What RMS Calls LLMs) and Fake Images Already Target the FSF
Why does Google News promote fake articles about the FSF while omitting all the real ones?
Software Patents as a Bubble
Don't invest resources in hype; if you detect a bubble, run away from it
Links 05/10/2025: Political Leftovers, Climate Change, and Security Incidents
Links for the day
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Saturday, October 04, 2025
IRC logs for Saturday, October 04, 2025