Watch how a case of optimism (even wishful thinking) leads to a reality check. The other day, someone dared to consider Novell investment-worthy, just a day before SCO received its delisting letter.

And even though it's unlikely Novell will ever reach the size and scope of software giants like Microsoft and Oracle, that doesn't mean investors can't make money betting on the underdog.

Betting on the underdog does not warrant anything. Some people truly believe that they have found a trick that enables them to always win in Blackjack, but it might be case of fortune, which is entirely independent from logic. Novell is not in a good shape right now. Its financial oddities and woes, e.g. errors and delays in filing, which have led to delising warnings, say quite a lot. Another analyst weighs in.

Is this the same Novell that in every quarter for more than a year either missed analysts' targets or made disappointing forecasts? Is this the same Novell where less than 10 percent of annual revenue is actually open source-related? Is this the same Novell that upset the open source community by signing away its soul to Microsoft?