Bonum Certa Men Certa

We Don't Really Know How Many People Died With (or From) COVID-19 and How Many Will Die After Home Recovery or Release From Hospital

Never mind bills (or debt) associated with medical treatment and maintenance; trust established journals and medical experts, not social control media and "tweets" with many "likes"

Chekov Admiral Star Trek medics: He's young; arrogant; Misinformed by social control media



Summary: The coronavirus pandemic that began last year as an epidemic (COVID-19) is still a very serious problem, even half a year after its widespread arrival in Europe; it's important to emphasise the importance of not down-playing this problem (which is far from solved) because social control media is full of junk

THERE is no "back to normal..."



Lock-downs and "waves" (and restrictions tightening, then loosening) may be the "new normal" for years to come. Vaccines that are both effective and well tested (for longterm side effects) can take a decade or even 15 years to develop (Donald Trump does not know that; he's being advised by profiteers like Bill Gates, who is in many ways alike). For the flu and the TB we have vaccinations and treatments that are quite effective. Not for COVID-19, at least not yet. What many companies say about solutions they've come up with may be marketeering, or little more than shameless self-promotion. Risky 'shortcuts' can do more harm than good.

"What many companies say about solutions they've come up with may be marketeering, or little more than shameless self-promotion."I've spoken to a close friend of mine who's a professor in this area; he says one must obviously avoid this virus even if one is young and can overcome it naturally (even asymptomatically) because of the long-term damage that can be 'silent'. He's almost 60 now and lecturing from home. There's this new study summarised here as saying that "[p]ost-infection cardiac damage found in 78% of recovering COVID19 patients" and "[t]hat's 78% of a cohort, average age 49, of whom 67% had recovered at home (ie. disease was not categorized as severe enough to need hospitalization). Cohort was normalized with respect to other risk factors relative to uninfected patients. Diagnosis by MRI."

Charlie Stross has about 500 comments on there (and no, it's not a "tweet") and he says "most COVID19 survivors—including mild disease survivors—suffer cardiac damage."

The paper is in both HTML and PDF form. A couple of portions:

Findings In this cohort study including 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 identified from a COVID-19 test center, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), which was independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis.

[...]

A total of 78 patients who recovered from COVID-19 infection (78%) had cardiovascular involvement as detected by standardized CMR, irrespective of preexisting conditions, the severity and overall course of the COVID-19 presentation, the time from the original diagnosis, or the presence of cardiac symptoms. The most prevalent abnormality was myocardial inflammation (defined as abnormal native T1 and T2 measures), detected in 60 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 (60%), followed by regional scar and pericardial enhancement. Findings on classic parameters, such as volumes and ejection fractions, were mildly abnormal. Myocardial measures, native T1 measures, and native T2 measures provided the best discriminatory value against healthy controls and risk factor–matched controls for exclusion of any myocardial disease or confirmation of COVID-19–related involvement, respectively.


This is aside from lung damage and nerves. In years to come some of these people may return to clinics and require hospitalisation for non-COVID-19-related issues. So the long-term cost and the death toll is yet unknown. Later today the "official" number of coronavirus casualties will exceed 700k, about 372k of which are in America (Brazil and the US accounting for the lion's share). Given the attitude towards masks from both 'leaders' (Bolsonaro and Trump, respectively) it's probably safe to say that wearing a mask is a lot better than wearing none.

"In my own view, social control media dooms us not only politically; it's costing lives."I am personally upset to see some of the junk anti-science that social control media is nowadays full of; it's rewarded with many likes, passed around based on gut feeling alone (or political standpoint) and in sites like Facebook it has vastly broader reach than journals like the above or even press that bothers with fact-checking (or consults domain experts).

In my own view, social control media dooms us not only politically; it's costing lives. It makes people misguided and reinforces misguidance by 'balkanising' similar groups, causing 'groupthink' that revolves around falsehoods. All social control media inherently became vulnerable to this. It's a regretful transition from responsible journalism to hearsay and provocation.

"With about 20 million confirmed cases we don't really know the long-term effects yet. It hasn't even been a year."I myself am not a coronavirus expert (and I don't pretend to be one, unlike a certain Bill Gates, who is just looking to profit from the whole thing). But I do try to read accurate information about it and I speak about it to people with a clue (mostly listening). The general consensus is that not only direct fatalities should be cause for concern. With about 20 million confirmed cases we don't really know the long-term effects yet. It hasn't even been a year.

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