Bonum Certa Men Certa

The EPO Bubble — Part IV — A Cashflow Problem Looming on the Horizon?

Overview: [Teaser] The EPO's Deflating Patent Bubble and Pursuit of Illegal Software Patents (With Kangaroo Courts, UPC, and Bullied Examiners)

Series parts:

  1. The EPO Bubble — Part I — An “Unprecedented Surge”
  2. The EPO Bubble — Part II — Signs of a Deflating Bubble?
  3. The EPO Bubble — Part III — Dividing Up the Spoils...
  4. YOU ARE HERE ☞ A Cashflow Problem Looming on the Horizon?


EPO Dukatenesel
Is the legendary EPOnian "Dukatenesel" at risk of developing constipation?



Summary: The EPO has become unsustainable since the days of Benoît Battistelli as suitably-qualified examiners left in droves, new suitably-qualified examiners are impossible to recruit, and quality of patents plunged along with compliance rates; the revenue incurred by handing out hundreds of thousands of fake European Patents was just a temporary 'luxury'; the EPO is in fact being destroyed by managers who break the law, violate constitutions, and trash treaties/conventions

In the last part we saw how both the senior management of the EPO and their "friends" on the Organisation’s governing body - the Administrative Council - have a "vested interest" in a high level of granted patents.



Any developments which impact negatively on the number of grants will threaten the lucrative cashflow from EPOnia’s “Dukatenesel” and are likely to be a cause for concern in these circles.

"Any developments which impact negatively on the number of grants will threaten the lucrative cashflow from EPOnia’s “Dukatenesel” and are likely to be a cause for concern in these circles."As we noted in the second part of the series, the number of grants at the EPO took a significant downturn in 2020 and 2021. This downward trend is expected to continue during 2022 because of ongoing industrial action by the EPO staff union SUEPO.

In the normal course of events it takes some time before the renewal fees due at national offices are paid and, likewise, before the national offices hand over the EPO’s share.

"In the normal course of events it takes some time before the renewal fees due at national offices are paid and, likewise, before the national offices hand over the EPO’s share."Because of this, there will typically be a time lag of one or more years before changes in the number of granted patents give rise to any visible impact on NRF revenues.

For this reason, the impact of the recent downturn in EPO "production" is not yet visible in the EPO’s NRF revenue for 2021 (reported as € 640,71 million). However, if the "grant bubble" were to continue deflating, this would inevitably lead to a stagnation or drop in future NRF revenues.

EPO NRF revenue
The downturn in the number of grants is not yet reflected in the EPO’s NRF revenue figures. However, if the "grant bubble" continues to deflate, this will inevitably lead to a stagnation or drop in future NRF revenues.



In other words, a sustained decline in the level of granted patents over the course of the coming years would ultimately lead to a decline in the level of NRF revenues accruing to both the EPO and its contracting states.

"Against this background, it becomes apparent that EPO management has strong motives for trying to prop up the "grant bubble" and stave off any impending decrease in NRF cashflow."Such a development obviously has worrying implications for all those dependent on the largesse of EPOnia’s legendary "Dukatenesel".

Against this background, it becomes apparent that EPO management has strong motives for trying to prop up the "grant bubble" and stave off any impending decrease in NRF cashflow.

In the next part, we shall explain why insiders have good reason to believe that Team Campinos is currently gearing up to take "pre-emptive action" in this regard.

Recent Techrights' Posts

How the SLAPPs From Microsoft Staff Are Connected to the Corrupt OSI, Whose Majority of Money Comes From Microsoft for Openwashing, LLM Hype, and Whitewashing GPL Violations During Class Action Trial
Let's explain how some of these things are connected
You Need Not Be a Big Company to Defeat Microsoft If You Can Successfully Challenge Its Core "Ideas"
Maybe that's just a sign that the ideas of RMS have become too effective and thus "dangerous"
 
Links 11/05/2025: Pyotr Wrangel and Kubernetes With FreeBSD
Links for the day
What Happened to the Open Source Initiative (OSI) Elections: A Moment of Silence and Revisionism Amid US Government Investigation and Community Uproar
Not a word this month
Microsoft Florian Becomes Patent Troll, Arranges to Sue Companies (Extorting Money Out of Them)
From campaigner against software patents to paid Microsoft shill to "FOSS patents" (actually attacking FOSS) to revisionism as "books" (for Microsoft)... and now this
Links 11/05/2025: China's Fentanylware (TikTok) Tells Kids to Vandalise Schools' Chromebooks and Increased Censorship in India
Links for the day
Gemini Links 11/05/2025: Yeeting Oligarch Tech, Offline Browsing
Links for the day
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Saturday, May 10, 2025
IRC logs for Saturday, May 10, 2025
One is Simply Doomed to Fail When Working for Violent Men From Microsoft and Attacking Women as Well as People Who Merely Expose Crimes or Report Real Crimes
Imagine saying to people that you "practice law" or "exercise law"
The Tariffs Are Accelerating Microsoft's Decline in China
Judging by the way things are going, there will be considerable adoption of GNU/Linux in years to come, China being one major contributing factor.
Control Your Systems, Control All Your Data
what does it take for us to control our own systems and data?
Misplacing Blame for Security Problems, Sometimes With LLM Slop That Blames "Linux" for Microsoft's Failures
Broken telephones and stochastic parrots beget plenty of Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt (FUD)
Links 10/05/2025: WW2 Revisionism, Further Tit-for-tat in India-Pakistan Conflict
Links for the day
Links 10/05/2025: Germany Considers Smartphone Ban in Schools, Right to Repair Bills
Links for the day
Gemini Links 10/05/2025: Git Server and Great LLM DDoS of 2025
Links for the day
Blizzard/Microsoft Unions Grow Ahead of Mass Layoffs at Microsoft, Apparently Starting Next Week (as Many as 30,000 Workers Laid Off by Year's End)
Microsoft already fired about 5,000-6,000 workers this year by our estimates; that's not counting resignations compelled through pressure (i.e. pushed, did not jump) and contractors
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Friday, May 09, 2025
IRC logs for Friday, May 09, 2025
"Victory Day" - Part II: Abject Defeat to Hypocrites and Objectionable People Who Strangle Women Whilst on Microsoft's Payroll
Someone is going to have to pay for this; it won't be us
Rust Propaganda Now Amplified by Slopfarms Powered by Microsoft LLMs, Encouraging the Outsourcing of GNU/Linux Distros to Microsoft/GitHub/NSA (and a Shift Away From GPL/Copyleft)
Moving to Microsoft GitHub and adopting unfinished, untested code for highly critical bits
Links 09/05/2025: Inflation Rising and Rights to Protest Curtailed Some More
Links for the day
Gemini Links 09/05/2025: Good and Evil, LLMs Made the Web Worse Yet Again
Links for the day
IBM is Rotting With "Zero Internal Jobs" and Many PIPs (Performance Improvement Plans) on the Way, Typically a Fast Track Towards Layoffs Without Severance
At risk of giving air(time) to tribal sentiments, the internal joke at IBM is that to IBM "AI" stands for "All Indian"
European Patent Office (EPO) Faked "Revenue Expansion" by Granting Loads of Invalid, Illegal Patents; Staff Still Wants to Know Where That Money Went
Only about 30% of the EPO's patents are for EU entities/people
The Gerstnerisation of Microsoft: Seventh Wave of Microsoft Layoffs (Over 20,000 to be Cut) Allegedly Going to Start Shortly, Probably Start of Next Week, Microsoft Spreads Chaff and Noise Before the Big Axes Fall
we might be looking at about 50,000 people that Microsoft gets rid of this year
Links 09/05/2025: TeleMessage Blunder, More Distractions From Impending Mass Layoffs at Microsoft
Links for the day
GNU (and the FSF) Still Changing the World
Today, in 2025, GNU powers almost everything
Military-Grade Anti-Linux Microsoft Propaganda Using Microsoft LLMs in Fake 'News' Sites (Slopfarms)
This is part of a pattern
Links 09/05/2025: Analog Computer and First time at FOSDEM
Links for the day
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Thursday, May 08, 2025
IRC logs for Thursday, May 08, 2025