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Microsoft-Novell: Has Their Deal Made a Difference?

Illuminata analyst Gordon Haff sees little impact.

"Overall, it's hard to see a lot of impact to date in the sense that there haven't been major market share shifts among any of the major players," Haff said.

451 Group analyst Matthew Aslett is on the same side of the fence, noting that the overall impact of the agreement has not been as great as people might have expected, or feared, depending on their point of view.

"Microsoft's purchase of $240 million worth of support certificates for joint customers produced a boost for Novell's Linux revenue, but it doesn't appear to have had any impact on Red Hat's business," Aslett told InternetNews.com.

A Red Hat spokesperson was not immediately available for comment.

Beyond the business impact there is the interoperability side of the equation to consider, as well.

"There could still be some long-term impact from the interoperability initiatives around virtualization, as well as systems and identity management, but it could be some time before customers see the results," Aslett said.

Matt Aslett and Gordon Haff rightly point out that there's little real change. They must be aware of the 'coupon effect', which is bound to run out of steam fairly soon. Novell uses its temporary stock of coupons to make itself appear like a growth company, which it is not (jobs are being axed, for starters).

The analysts above do not merely drink the Redmond-Waltham Kool-Aid (joint press releases or PR pitch, which are sometimes parroted by journalists very blindly). In the case of Matt, also knows that Microsoft is deceiving the press (just watch what Susan Hauser did there). It's nice to see that a journalist who has turned into an analyst maintained the same position, based on his own expriences as a reporter.

eWeek has another article on this topic. It is summarised as follows:

One year after former arch-rivals Microsoft and Novell partner up, what has resulted from their alliance?

Peter Galli, in my eyes at least, is one whose credibility is becoming a tad iffy after biased reporting and a big mistake in an article about virtualisation (misquoting Sam Ramji). Nonetheless, here is anohter article from eWeek.

Microsoft and Novell are using the one-year anniversary of their interoperability agreement to tout the increasing number of enterprise customers who are signing up because of the benefits offered through the collaboration.

The article talks about 30 new customers that signed up for "Microsoft's Linux Support Coupons". I've received an anonymous leak from one of these potential "new customers" and I am detemined to finally reveal how Microsoft and Novell -- just like a couple of hounds -- use FUD and other tricks to market themselves. It's an anti-Mandriva/Red Hat/Ubuntu deal. That's what it is. Microsoft is still trying to buy the market, essentially by 'bribing' or pressuring Linux distributors to defect and pay 'tax' for nothing of any substance.

This is utterly disturbing because Novell and Microsoft are willing to share the flesh of a Free software corpse. Later on, Microsoft will eliminate Novell as well. History teaches us that lesson.

”When the coupons finally run out, Novell will begin selling its body.“I might be able to bring out the details about Novell approaching a company while hiding the company's identity. This requires careful work, so it will probably be posted late in the weekend (if at all).

Remember this: Novell's coupsons are worthless. Those coupons won't last (they are limited) and they represent a case where Novell needs Microsoft's 'permission' to sell GNU/Linux. Novell is now too dependent on (and thus loyal to) Microsoft. Just look at Novell's treatment of OOXML, for example. When the coupons finally run out, Novell will begin selling its body. It will be lucky to stay a 5,000-employee work[h|k]force because Microsoft devours its legacy business.

It didn't have to be like this. Novell did it to itself. It sold out.

Related items:

• Is it Microsoft + Novell or Microsoft vs. Novell?



• Speaking of Linux and the spirit of open source



• Novell uses Microsoft FUD to market itself