07.20.09
Another Interpretation of the Windows 7 Survey
Summary: Very scarce adoption predicted based on very scarce response rate, which is biased
LAST week we wrote about a survey which suggested a poor adoption expectancy for Windows 7. The following article, titled “94% of companies will pass on Windows 7 upgrade until late 2010,” gives good interpretation of what was found (or what was not found) by the survey.
The poll is a relatively small sample of all the companies out there, still it is 5% of those companies contacted. And to have 94% of them say they would not upgrade until sometime late in 2010 is really something! I think that’s more telling than the 60% who, today, say they won’t upgrade at all — as those mindsets could change given a successful migration, for example. But some are already anticipating the upcoming problems before they occur and have simply said “No, not before the end of 2010″.
There is also this new essay called “Microsoft Myopia Leads to Revisionist History.” It is mostly an Apple versus Microsoft angle, though. █
Jonathan Wong said,
July 20, 2009 at 11:48 am
I work for Microsoft, so allow me to offer my opinion on Rick’s interpretation of the ScriptLogic survey results.
59% of those polled say that they have no plans to deploy Windows 7, even until the end of 2010. We shall not speculate whether they will deploy Windows 7 in 2011 or at all, and just assume they won’t.
Simple mathematics then tell us that 41% plan to or will have Windows 7 deployed by Dec 2010, which is roughly a year (13 months and change) after the official release of Windows 7 (Official launch date is Oct 22, 2009).
So to give it some historical perspective, the adoption rate of Windows XP one year after it was officially released is about 12-14%. And we all can agree that XP ended up being a pretty successful OS.
Some food for thought.
Andrew Macabe Reply:
July 20th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
I wouldn’t say successful when the os is tied to the machine with no other options available. By the same token, death and taxes are successful also.
Yggdrasil 2084 Reply:
July 20th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
That’s grossly incorrect. You can buy a computer without Windows already installed if you shop around, but the demand for such service is extremely low so you will have to do some searching. A local PC shop might be the best route. For an overwhelming majority of people, buying a PC without Windows already installed would be like buying a car without an engine. It would feel incomplete to most people.
Unlike taxes, there is no law forcing you to purchase or use Windows. Unlike death, you can avoid Windows without much difficulty if that’s your choice. Your analogy is unfair and flawed.
Jose_X Reply:
July 20th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
I haven’t spent time to finish up a quick analysis. Here is the first part: http://boycottnovell.com/2009/07/16/msbbc-daemonises-the-eu/comment-page-1/#comment-70152
Keep in mind that those answering were a very small part of those asked (about 5% of those asked), and these people likely comprise a subgroup favorable beyond average towards Windows products. Ie, the 95% not answering will adopt at a lower level that is not known.
To consider for even a moment that the 41% “by the end of 2010″ rate would apply to the other 95% is beyond being extremely optimistic; thus, associating this survey’s 41% figure with XP’s 10-12% is to ignore very important facts around this survey. In short, that 41% is expected to be an upper bound that likely won’t be approached at all.
Further, I got the impression that the survey is about deploying Windows 7 not about migrating totally to Windows 7, so if 41% of people will deploy (on average) 15% of their workstations, that means the deployment rate would be 15% of 41%, which equals about 6% total.
Thus, assuming that 15% of total workstations (and assuming this prediction holds), we would have 6% deployments by Jan 1, 2011.
There are too many variables to say anything meaningful. Microsoft should have many very accurate polls. I’d wager they didn’t like the down-to-earth results they got.
Jonathan Wong said,
July 20, 2009 at 11:49 am
BTW, good to see the product finally being referenced by its proper name, “Windows 7″ instead of “Vista 7″.
Yuhong Bao Reply:
July 20th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Well, the server version is called Server 2008 R2 and the internal version is 6.1, similar to how Exchange 12 is really something like Exchange 7.0.