NVidia is a Bubble
2 months ago I learned that a relative of mine had secured a job at NVidia. Apparently NVidia is over-hiring - that's something that happens to a company or companies when they temporarily see fortunes and wrongly assume perpetuity thereof.
Russell Coker (Debian) has just said: "There are many negative articles about “AI” (which is not about actual Artificial Intelligence also known as “AGI”)."
"Companies like NVidia that have high stock prices based on the supposed ongoing growth in use of their hardware will have their stock prices crash," said Coker. "But the new technology they develop will be used by other people for other purposes. If hospitals can get cheap diagnostic ML systems because of unreasonable investment into “AI” then that could be a win for humanity."
We've long argued that as many so-called 'hey hi' firms are going to collapse, the second-hand (or "preowned") market for GPUs will flourish, owing to oversupply or over-abundance. That helps NVidia in no way whatsoever. Liquidation sales of GPUs don't bring a single dime to NVidia.
"NVidia isn’t ever going to have the future sales that would justify a market capitalisation of almost 4 Trillion US dollars," Coker argued.
The comparison people out there made was, NVidia is selling shovels in an age of a gold rush. As soon as people realise the availability of gold was greatly exaggerated, they will lay down their shovels and stop buying new shovels.
There's a good analogy for what NVidia is right now: VA Linux Systems (later known as VA Software)
GNU/Linux became abundant. Nobody needed VA Linux Systems.
GPUs aren't going away (Linux didn't go away). NVidia isn't going to go bankrupt any time soon, either.
However, the hey hi (AI) bubble isn't sustainable. NVidia throwing cash at 'open' hey hi (AI) and so-called 'hey hi' (slop) startups is about NVidia trying to delay the inevitable implosion of this bubble.
When the media tells us ridiculous clickbait "stories" about the supposed 'worth' of Microsoft and NVidia it is playing a role in a pump-and-dumb scheme. Microsoft has plenty of problems already. █