Bonum Certa Men Certa

Is Net Applications One Order of Magnitude Off Target?

Summary: Another go at a comparison between truth and fiction

SURVEYS that encompass many Web sites cost a lot of money/effort/time to produce and the gain from them is mere unless a particular party gains. It is always very, very important to check where the money comes from. It's valuable to at least understand the business model.



Here at Boycott Novell, 45% of the pages this month are served to "Linux" (that's more than the equivalent figure for "Windows", where "Windows" is just the way it's parsed by AWStats, although there could be HTTP header modification because some people wrestle with stubborn IE-only Web sites).

Moments ago we wrote about the numbers from Net Applications and while we claimed that they were utterly wrong, we wrote nothing about what may be correct.

According to our reader, Chip, Net Applications claimed that GNU/Linux had a market share of 0.3% some years ago (subscription needed). In July of 2007 that's what they are said to have claimed. But wait. This has got to be wrong because it's highly inconsistent w.r.t. other figures we have. From the past couple of weeks we get:

Lies, Damn Lies and Linux Market Share Statistics

"The numbers from NetApplications are clearly unrepresentative of reality," blogger Robert Pogson told LinuxInsider. "Around 2003/4, IDC determined by survey that GNU/Linux was ahead of Mac OS at about 3 percent. Since then GNU/Linux has had growth numbers from 20 to 50 percent in various places.

"That would put GNU/Linux at 7 to 9 percent," he asserted.


There is also this:

usiness model is rebranding Windows executables and selling them to unsuspecting rubes.

A year ago Matt Assay said it was at 2.02%

ZDNet reported on Feb 24th, 2004 that the 2003 Linux desktop market share hit 3.2% and expected it to hit 6% by 2007. http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=5334 In 2005 they reported that the 2004 saw the Linux desktop at 4%. I believe that the all the ZDNet figures were spot on. If anything, the Linux desktop market share has continued to increase and is probably currently at 8-10% and rising. Dell and the other PC OEMs wouldn't have invested in selling Linux pre-installed if it appealed only to less than 1% of the desktop market.

It is quite obvious that NetApplications latest "report" is merely Microsoft's continuing attempt to control the news about Linux's success in replacing Windows on the desktop. It's not working... No one whith half an ounce of brain would take the bait on a "free" Win7 (a dumbed down version that can run only 3 apps at a time) that will deactivate after one year unless the user PAYS Microsoft to activate it. Win7 is NOT free.


As our reader amd-linux (from Germany) put it earlier today:

The thing is that NetApps gets a lot of attention from US/UK IT press, while other observations that show MUCH higher numbers and are equally representative are more or less ignored.

One example is OS stats on heise.de, which is THE mainstream IT new site in Germany. They have now 15% Linux users among their readers, and it would be way more if readers like me were in a situation to use Linux in the office where I read heise.de mostly.

Another example, if you question heise.de being representative is spigel.de which is one of the leading sites of the world (133 in Alexa) and a mainstream news website. Here Linux has around 4%-6%, coming from nearly nothing 2 yrs ago. While spiegel.de is a German news site, is is read from around the world like the BBC site.

It is IMHO safe to assume that Linux worldwide is closer to 2 % than to 1%. The only source who could reliably shed some light on this would be Google, but they refuse to publish any numbers.

But the best, and this nobody can ignore, is the trend. Linux usage is virtually exploding with growth in the double digit percentage area quarter per quarter.


Readers can decide for themselves what the installed base of GNU/Linux really is. We only present some evidence here.

Comments

Recent Techrights' Posts

How Many Web Requests From "Linux"...
If one was to assert that "Linux == Android" or "Android == Linux" (it's not that simple), then "Linux" already accounts for about 30% of Web requests
Microsoft Trots Out Its Propaganda Agent Preston Gralla to Make It Sound Like Microsoft Breaks Up With China (Reality: Microsoft Got Dumped by China)
This discredits any publisher that plays along
SLAPP Censorship - Part 161 Out of 200: Low Standards in Defamation Cases Just Muddy the Waters and Distract From Legitimate Cases
The judge at the trial said that Garrett's case was a waste of the court's money
 
Fake Articles "Sponsored by HPE" Published in The Register MS
Selling proprietary products as 'alternatives' to other proprietary products
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Tuesday, August 25, 2026
IRC logs for Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Gemini Links 26/08/2026: Journal Plans and Extending Finger Protocol
Links for the day
An Explainer About Injunctions Done Wrong - Part I - Saving Money Where Money Cannot be Saved
Of course Garrett not being able to afford his own case is a key factor here
Links 25/08/2026: "U.S. Marines Cancel Drill With South Korea", "UK Prime Minister Burnham Arrives in Ukraine"
Links for the day
Not for the First Time This Week, Site Called "It's FOSS" is Promoting Software That is NOT FOSS (And It Knows It)
Is this an editorial choice? Advertising? What is it?
Gemini Links 25/08/2026: Geometry and FidoNet History, "Goodbye I2P and Yggdrasil, Welcome Telnet!"
Links for the day
Links 25/08/2026: Microsoft Salaries Leaked Again, "Oasis Photograph Sparks Copyright Lawsuit"
Links for the day
GNU/Linux Did Not Start in 1991 and America Wasn't Discovered by Europeans
it'll be 43 next month
Rolling Out Some Changes Soon
To the regular reader no change will be seen
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Monday, August 24, 2026
IRC logs for Monday, August 24, 2026
Gemini Links 25/08/2026: Separated by Plexiglass, Low-Tech Information Networks, Jörg Rippel Comes to Geminispace
Links for the day
The Tragedy of Software Developers Making Up Narratives and Making Excuses for Plagiarism (of Their Own Work, Too)
one lingering issue is that many who vote in Debian GRs receive money from slop companies
Evri Makes Us Optimistic About the Collapse of the Slop Pyramid Scheme (Bubble)
Do not be seduced by false promises of "automation" or "intelligence" where only automation may exist but no intelligence at all
Congrats to Linux.org for Adopting or Getting Back to IRC
This is the way the Net ought to work and was originally designed to work [...] IRC as a protocol turns 38 this month
Links 24/08/2026: "Journalism Can Help Expose Bad Science And Trigger Real-World Change"; Further Suppression and Censorship in China/HK
Links for the day
Gemini Links 24/08/2026: Soul Mentality, Words to Live by, Mozz.us Gemlog Resumes, Smol Conversations
Links for the day
Today The Register MS Published Greenwashing Spam for the Slop Pyramid Scheme, It Mentions "AI" 29 Times
More people need to talk about the role of the media in this pyramid scheme
Slop Plagiarism and Chatbots Are Killing Evri (They Infuriate and Insult Clients)
Slop destroys companies and leads to misery (miserable clients, time-wasting)
Links 24/08/2026: Re-defining the IndieWeb and "Data Center Backlash Bursts Into the Midterms"
Links for the day
The Issue With Omarchy is the Slop, the Politics Are a Side Issue
Those corporations do not oppose slop, they participate in it
In South Korea, Steady Increases for GNU/Linux
authorities said they would migrate to GNU/Linux or consider moving in that direction
SLAPP Censorship - Part 160 Out of 200: In Astounding Repetition of Last Year, Brett Wilson LLP Deliberately Ignores Holidays of People It is Attacking and Crushes Principles of Access to Justice
Disconnected from the law
Links 24/08/2026: Vision and Skill, Doing Good, Chiperia Project
Links for the day
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Sunday, August 23, 2026
IRC logs for Sunday, August 23, 2026