11.06.09
Gemini version available ♊︎Vista 7 Sales Not Good, Microsoft Does Not Want to Talk About It
Summary: Microsoft insists on concentrating on just one distant country in order to hide the lukewarm response to Vista 7
TRUTH about Vista 7 be told, Steve Ballmer saw trouble coming. Back in August he realised that Vista 7 would not deliver what many hoped for in terms of market impact. Based on the latest words, his caution was justified.
The Inquirer analyses the language used and leaves no room for doubt:
Ballmer half heartedly talks up Windows 7
SHY AND RETIRING Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer seems to be having trouble finding something nice to say about Windows 7′s launch.
[...]
When hacks at ComputerWorld asked Ballmer how Windows 7 was doing, he said “er… its fantastic… er in Japan.”
“It is helping to spur PC sales… um… in Japan. We’ve had a great response… in Japan. The first ten days were bigger than the first ten days of XP or Vista or any other Windows launch that we have done… in Japan.”
What about sales outside Japan? The answer is so telling. There is one country in the world where the results were found to be satisfactory, so Ballmer just throws away the rest.
“Sales can (and will) be miscounted to give the impression of high demand.”Microsoft will soon artificially inflate numbers; Oiaohm told us about some tricks that allow it this time around. Sales can (and will) be miscounted to give the impression of high demand. In the case of Vista, buying an XP machine would count as one or two copies of Vista (double-dipping). In the “interests of shareholders” they just needed to lie.
A few days ago we showed that iPlayer supports GNU/Linux but not Vista 7, yet. That again is an example of Vista 7′s problems when it come to compatibility. According to this new article, there are more and more applications that run on GNU/Linux (and XP/Vista) but not on Vista 7. So why would companies take the risk of deploying Vista 7? They would not, show several independent surveys.
A couple of our readers have shared pointers to two new cartoons that seemingly make fun of Vista 7′s failure in the market (slow adoption, no reason to buy). This problem is being recognised by more and more Web sites. Additional layoffs are indicative of this. █
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Jose_X said,
November 7, 2009 at 12:04 am
Ballmer and co might be setting up (trying to set up) for positive news (after all the write-downs) to help the stock rise for a while to come. [Although it has risen noticeably since it's lows in the mid/upper teens]
All the money they borrowed and companies they bought (which will lead to more layoffs) and cost cutting moves will help them. As will the accounting shuffling. At least in the short term.. if things don’t go too badly.
I hope I am wrong, but the stock has recovered from months back. The stock market game is about manipulating public opinion so that those without research and experience buy into the hype at high prices and sell at low prices out of a belief the company is doomed. *If* ordinary people were selling the stock these past few months, then those that were buying at these prices will want to take it higher. They have room to work with if Microsoft posts regular numbers as they have before. I think the savvy investors tend to play mostly on the same side of this zero sum gain.. like cowboys herding cattle for the slaughter. [I'm not following Microsoft stock too closely, but I worry Microsoft will pull all stops to help their stock once again sell at a high P/E.]
Another thing to keep in mind is that a significant amount of the avalanche of stock options from the end of the last decade may have expired (I have not been tracking the numbers.. I’m also not an accountant). If so, this would tend to clear the path for a rise in price.
Finally, there are signs that the market will continue to rise and even surpass it’s high of 2007/8.. at least before pulling back again.
May the antitrust authorities and Linux and who not continue to bite Microsoft and keep them off balance. Go Google. Down with Yahoo if they help MS. Go Oracle and IBM. Go Red Hat. Go SCOTUS with software patent neutering. Etc. I want the monopolies and that company’s leadership broken up.
your_friend Reply:
November 7th, 2009 at 2:09 am
Unfortunately, Microsoft has simply resorted to lying about sales. The Microsoft press is touting numbers about early sales being twice as high as Vista everywhere, not just Japan. This could be damage control or planned hype. Either way, it’s doubtful that Windows 7 is having a Windos 95 moment.
You can never tell what’s really happening with a company filled with as many pathological liars as Microsoft is. How could there be such great news and Steve Ballmer be ignorant? Microsoft has lied about so many numbers that nothing they say can be taken at face value. Recent articles parading these alleged sales also talk about GNU/Linux as if no one were using it.
Windows 7 has been out for so short a time that the numbers are meaningless even if Microsoft could be trusted. Two or even ten times zero is still a big, fat zero.
There are other ways to fudge these numbers. Selective time periods, regions and artificial market segmenting, like they did with Zune statistics, is an easy one. They might have just made the numbers up. Who knows?
Roy Schestowitz Reply:
November 7th, 2009 at 5:16 am
Yes, NPD does precisely this for clients like Microsoft.
That’s the same NPD which said Linux had 4% market share in sub-notebooks when the real figure is somewhere around 30%.
There is not only the selection of time periods and shops in particular regions; there’s also the option of offering massive discounts and as Oiaohm said (based on his experience), dumping of licences on him.