Bonum Certa Men Certa

The EPO Bubble — Part IV — A Cashflow Problem Looming on the Horizon?

Overview: [Teaser] The EPO's Deflating Patent Bubble and Pursuit of Illegal Software Patents (With Kangaroo Courts, UPC, and Bullied Examiners)

Series parts:

  1. The EPO Bubble — Part I — An “Unprecedented Surge”
  2. The EPO Bubble — Part II — Signs of a Deflating Bubble?
  3. The EPO Bubble — Part III — Dividing Up the Spoils...
  4. YOU ARE HERE ☞ A Cashflow Problem Looming on the Horizon?


EPO Dukatenesel
Is the legendary EPOnian "Dukatenesel" at risk of developing constipation?



Summary: The EPO has become unsustainable since the days of Benoît Battistelli as suitably-qualified examiners left in droves, new suitably-qualified examiners are impossible to recruit, and quality of patents plunged along with compliance rates; the revenue incurred by handing out hundreds of thousands of fake European Patents was just a temporary 'luxury'; the EPO is in fact being destroyed by managers who break the law, violate constitutions, and trash treaties/conventions

In the last part we saw how both the senior management of the EPO and their "friends" on the Organisation’s governing body - the Administrative Council - have a "vested interest" in a high level of granted patents.



Any developments which impact negatively on the number of grants will threaten the lucrative cashflow from EPOnia’s “Dukatenesel” and are likely to be a cause for concern in these circles.

"Any developments which impact negatively on the number of grants will threaten the lucrative cashflow from EPOnia’s “Dukatenesel” and are likely to be a cause for concern in these circles."As we noted in the second part of the series, the number of grants at the EPO took a significant downturn in 2020 and 2021. This downward trend is expected to continue during 2022 because of ongoing industrial action by the EPO staff union SUEPO.

In the normal course of events it takes some time before the renewal fees due at national offices are paid and, likewise, before the national offices hand over the EPO’s share.

"In the normal course of events it takes some time before the renewal fees due at national offices are paid and, likewise, before the national offices hand over the EPO’s share."Because of this, there will typically be a time lag of one or more years before changes in the number of granted patents give rise to any visible impact on NRF revenues.

For this reason, the impact of the recent downturn in EPO "production" is not yet visible in the EPO’s NRF revenue for 2021 (reported as € 640,71 million). However, if the "grant bubble" were to continue deflating, this would inevitably lead to a stagnation or drop in future NRF revenues.

EPO NRF revenue
The downturn in the number of grants is not yet reflected in the EPO’s NRF revenue figures. However, if the "grant bubble" continues to deflate, this will inevitably lead to a stagnation or drop in future NRF revenues.



In other words, a sustained decline in the level of granted patents over the course of the coming years would ultimately lead to a decline in the level of NRF revenues accruing to both the EPO and its contracting states.

"Against this background, it becomes apparent that EPO management has strong motives for trying to prop up the "grant bubble" and stave off any impending decrease in NRF cashflow."Such a development obviously has worrying implications for all those dependent on the largesse of EPOnia’s legendary "Dukatenesel".

Against this background, it becomes apparent that EPO management has strong motives for trying to prop up the "grant bubble" and stave off any impending decrease in NRF cashflow.

In the next part, we shall explain why insiders have good reason to believe that Team Campinos is currently gearing up to take "pre-emptive action" in this regard.

Recent Techrights' Posts

Parties and Milestones Again
we've begun putting up about 40 balloons
Microsoft is Disloyal Towards Its Most Loyal Employees
Against its most faithful enablers
 
The Cocaine Patent Office - Part II: The Person Who Planted Paid-for Fake News for the European Patent Office (EPO) is a Cocaine User, Friend of António Campinos, Now on Record as Having Been Arrested
Background: High-level manager at the European Patent Office caught in public with cocaine, arrested
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Monday, October 27, 2025
IRC logs for Monday, October 27, 2025
Google News Drowning in Slop (and Slopfarms That Hijack About Half the Results)
Google News seems to be drowning in this stuff
Gemini Links 28/10/2025: "How to Maximize Your Positive Impact" and ASCII Art and Artist Attribution
Links for the day
PETA and Activism
Being staff or volunteer in PETA isn't easy
Big Blue, Huge Debt
debt will soar again
Links 27/10/2025: Mass Surveillance Sold as "AI", People Reluctant to Lose Physical Media
Links for the day
Techrights' 19th Anniversary: Bronze
Time to go back to preparing for this anniversary
Our Latest European Patent Office (EPO) Series Will Last Several Weeks, Will Ask the EPO Management and the European Union (EU) Very Difficult Questions
If nobody loses a job (or jobs) over this, then the EU basically became no better than Colombia or Nicaragua
Slopwatch: LinuxSecurity, UbuntuPIT, Brian Fagioli, and Google News
We focus on stories that are fake or LLM slop that disguises itself as "news" about Linux
Links 27/10/2025: Wikipedia Vandalism, Bruce Perens Opens up on Childhood
Links for the day
This Site Could Not be Done by LLMs Even If It Wanted to (Because It's Not a Parrot of What Other Sites Say)
LLMs have no knowledge or deep understanding
19 Years, No Censorship
No factual information is ever going to be removed, more so if it is in the public interest
We Are Not a Conventional Site, That's Why They Hate (or Love) Us
Throughout the week this week we'll be focusing on the EPO
Following the Line of Cocaine All the Way to the Top
Even a million denials and spin-doctoring won't distract from the core issue
The Cocaine Patent Office - Part I: António Campinos Brought Corruption and Nepotism to the EPO, Then Came the Cocaine
High-level manager at the European Patent Office (EPO) caught in public with cocaine, the Office has some answering to do
Purchasing/Possessing Computers Isn't the Same as Controlling Computers
Let's strive to put computers back under the control of their users, no matter who purchased these (usually the users)
Gemini Links 27/10/2025: Alhena 5.4.3 and Fixing Bash
Links for the day
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Sunday, October 26, 2025
IRC logs for Sunday, October 26, 2025
Thankfully We've Made Copies of More Interesting Data From statCounter
If statCounter (the Web site or the 'webapp') vanished overnight, we'd still have something left of it
More Silent Layoffs at IBM/Red Hat
when the media counts such layoffs or presents tallies the numbers are very incomplete
Links 26/10/2025: Microsoft Spies on Gamers, Open Transport Community Conference
Links for the day
Links 26/10/2025: LLM Slop / Plagiarism Programs Continue to Disappoint, CISA Layoffs Threaten Systems
Links for the day
Gemini Links 26/10/2025: Gemsync and Joining the Small Web
Links for the day
India.com a Click-baiting, SEO-Spamming, Slopfarming Heap
They do this almost every day
Over at Tux Machines...
GNU/Linux news for the past day
IRC Proceedings: Saturday, October 25, 2025
IRC logs for Saturday, October 25, 2025
Without XBox Consoles, XBox is No More, It's Just a Brand (More Rumours of Microsoft Ending XBox, Then Laying Off Lots of Staff)
All signs indicate that Microsoft wants to "exit" the XBox business (not brand), but it does not want to publicly admit this as it would alarm staff and shareholders