02.04.08
IBM and Microsoft Share the Same Problem That They Hide
“I’d be glad to help tilt lotus into into the death spiral. I could do it Friday afternoon but not Saturday. I could do it pretty much any time the following week.”
–Brad Silverberg, Microsoft
Just over a week ago we unraveled some of the many flaws in Microsoft's financial reports. In short, they fail to account for many factors that conveniently get concealed. In other words, it is a case of bluffing. Here is another interesting writeup about the situation.
Recently Microsoft posted their profits for 2007. Despite Vista being one of the worst disasters to hit the computer systems markets since Windows ME, Microsoft seemed to come out way ahead… or did they?
Profits don’t always tell the full story about how a company performs, and I’m not talking about Enron.
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Fact is, while Microsoft looks like it did great on paper… the external factors tell a story of a company that is getting hamstrung on all sides.
The collective disaster of Vista on retail has sent all major OEM’s scrambling to get non-Microsoft solutions for their computer systems on the market… and that failure is going to show for the likes of Dell, HP, Gateway, Asus, Averatec, and many others.
The question remains… how many of the OEM’s and Vendors are going to lay their problems at the feet of Microsoft where the problems belong…
This is just another consideration to add to many which were mentioned in the previous long post. Another new article from The Street alludes to one of Microsoft’s problems when it talks about buybacks.
One of the primary goals of Stockpickr.com is to allow everyday investors a look at what the big guns are buying. Often, we see a big-name investor loading up on a particular stock. This is usually a good sign, because you know that person put a lot of time and due diligence into that process.
But when that same company announces that an insider has purchased a large chunk of stock or, even better, the board announces a new large share-buyback program, that usually seals the bullish case for the stock.
“Robert Scoble, a Microsoft evangelist at one point, said the stock was “in a freefall” just before those buybacks began.”Be aware that both IBM and Microsoft are very heavily vested in ‘buybacks mode’. In fact, MSFT almost dropped below $20 before its buybacks began. Robert Scoble, a Microsoft evangelist at one point, said the stock was “in a freefall” just before those buybacks began. Microsoft was fortunate to have cash reserves.
So, all in all, be very careful and wary of the hypnosis that you may come under. Despite a staff exodus, for example, Microsoft wants to be seen as a very healthy company. Ironically, the bid for Yahoo ruins that perception. More than anything, it validates the arguments that Microsoft’s Web strategy was an utter failure. it wants to borrow somebody else’s now; not just strategy, but market share also.
Lastly, remember that there is a good reason why Microsoft resorted to outright corruption in order to save its cash cow from a universal industry standard (ODF). █
“Raikes departure will have huge impact on Microsoft as it completes its 2008 fiscal year on June 30. His division is one of two responsible for nearly all Microsoft’s profits. “
–Joe Wilcox, Microsoft Watch, January 2008
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