02.28.10

Gemini version available ♊︎

Novell’s Financial Results Disappoint Again (Revenue Misses Expectations)

Posted in Finance, GNU/Linux, Novell, SLES/SLED at 5:58 am by Dr. Roy Schestowitz

novell-boat

Summary: A look at all the coverage we could find about Novell’s financial report from Thursday

LOOKING back at the past 2 weeks, we find that Novell’s results did not surprise for the better. Here is a roundup of some posts on the subject, latter parts being more relevant than the former.

The Week Before

A week and a half before the results came out there was nothing particularly interesting in the news. Novell was just mentioned in:

Stocks At 52-Week High (MAT, CAG, ARUN, NOVL)

Novell, Inc. (NASDAQ:NOVL) made a new 52-week high of $5.03 in the morning session. In the past one year, the stock has rallied over 47%.

SmarTrend research report available on Novell

Stocks At 52-Week High (MAT, CAG, ARUN, NOVL)

Novell, Inc. (NASDAQ:NOVL) made a new 52-week high of $5.03 in the morning session. In the past one year, the stock has rallied over 47%.

SmarTrend research report available on Novell (NASDAQ:NOVL)

SmarTrend, our proprietary pattern recognition system, called an Uptrend for Novell (NASDAQ:NOVL) on January 06, 2010 at $4.53. Since then, Novell has returned 9.9% as of today’s recent price of $4.98.

It didn’t last long.

Results’ Week

Things became a little more interesting days before the results came out, with coverage including:

Unusual Trading Activity for Novell Inc (NOVL)

Interesting Options Volume for Novell Inc (NOVL)

This Weeks Earnings on Wall St

Novell Broke Resistance

Novell near Resistance

Novell Closing in to Support

Results’ Time

Here is Novell’s press release and the transcript of the Earnings Call.

Coverage then included:

Novell Guides Revenue Below Estimates

Novell Ahead of Earnings

Gap, Safeway, Blackstone

Conference Calls Today: 5-5:30 P.M. EST

Stocks Poised For Weak Open

Assured Guaranty (AGO), Crocs (CROX), Fluor (FLR), Gap Inc. (GPS), LaSalle Hotel (LHO), Novell (NOVL) and Universal Health (UHS) are among the major companies that will report their quarterly results after the markets close for trading.

Wall Street Set For Higher Open

After the markets closed for trading in the previous session, software solutions provider Novell Inc. (NOVL) reported a higher profit in its first quarter, helped lower operating expenses, notwithstanding a decline in revenues. Earnings for the quarter were in line with estimates, but revenues fell short of expectations. Looking ahead to the second quarter, Novell expects sequential revenues to be flat.

Novell profit rises as sales slip 6%

Novell 1Q Earnings Match Street’s View; Revenue Falls

Novell Inc. (NOVL) saw shares fall slightly after the company said fiscal first-quarter earnings per share were in-line with the Street’s view, but reported worse than expected quarterly revenue.

Fluor cuts yearly forecast; Gap increases annual dividend

Novell shares slump after quarterly revenue outlook

[...]

Investors pushed Novell /quotes/comstock/15*!novl/quotes/nls/novl (NOVL 4.69, -0.01, -0.21%) shares down 1.3% to $4.75 after the business software provider said it expects second-quarter net revenue “to be similar” to first fiscal quarter that ended in January. Analysts had expected second-quarter revenue of $212 million. Novell reported first-quarter revenue of $202.4 million compared with $214.9 million in the year-ago period.

Looking ahead to Novell Inc. earnings; NOVL, ASIA, MFE, CHKP

Novell, Inc. Issues Q2 2010 Revenue Guidance Below Analysts’ Estimates

Novell, Inc. announced that for second quarter of 2010, it expects net revenue to be similar to first quarter of 2010 revenue levels. The Company reported net revenue of $202 million in first quarter of 2010. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts were expecting the Company to report revenues of $212.6 million for second quarter of 2010.

Novell Q1 Profit Rises

Earnings for the quarter were in line with estimates, but revenues fell short of expectations. Looking ahead to the second quarter, Novell expects sequential revenues to be flat.

Positive spin is not exactly justified.

Further Analysis

Here is an example of how to select statistics such that they support a point of view:

Novell Net Up 89% After 2008 Charges; Shares Down On View -NOVL

Novell Inc.’s (NOVL) fiscal first-quarter profit surged 89% on higher margins and fewer charges, as the software company posted lower revenue.

Novell posts 81% increase in Q1 profits – Regional

They compare a year of financial collapse to one that is less so. They also say nothing about the small margin, whose increase on an absolute scale is rather small. Here is what a Microsoft booster had to say and also another perspective:

Elsewhere, Novell Inc. (NOVL) reported first-quarter net income of $20.2 million, or 6 cents per share, on revenue of $202.4 million. Analysts had expected Novell to post a profit of 7 cents per share on $207.6 million in revenue. Options traders had high hopes for NOVL’s quarterly report, with the stock’s SOIR of 0.17 indicating that calls outnumbered puts by a factor of more than five to one. What’s more, this ratio arrives at an annual low, meaning that these speculative investors have not been more bullishly aligned during the past year.

Here is what Novell boosters had to say, looking at just one portion of the business in isolation:

Novell: Still Looking for its Mojo

Novell’s latest quarterly financial results, revealed today, were a mixed bag for the SUSE Linux provider. Novell made progress in some areas. But didn’t really thrive in others. Where does the company go from here. The answers will likely surface at the Novell BrainShare 2010 conference (March 21-25, Utah), where Novell will strive to energize channel partners and customers? In the meantime, here’s a look at Novell’s current business condition … through the eyes of The VAR Guy.

Novell’s SUSE Linux Milestone: Proper Perspective

Initially, The VAR Guy wasn’t all that impressed with Novell’s latest financial results, announced Feb. 25. But our resident blogger overlooked one important fact: Novell’s SUSE Linux business is now break-even. That’s an important milestone — but what does it say about the broader open source industry’s march to profitability? Here are some clues.

There is a picture of a scale there, with people on one side and cash on the other. GNU/Linux in general is growing rapidly, but Novell broke even only after SUSE layoffs which cut expenses down. “Microsoft Deal Slumps,” claims Sean Michael Kerner and Timothy Prickett Morgan more or less agrees with him about Novell’s Ballnux business breaking even.

For the quarter, Novell continued its trend of ever-shrinking overall sales as its legacy NetWare operating system and GroupWise collaboration software business declines faster than SUSE Linux support revenues can fill in the gap. Total revenues for the quarter came to $202.4m, down 5.8 per cent, with software license sales plummeting 25 per cent to $21.2m (largely because of NetWare declines).

Days Afterwards

As the following chart hopefully shows, Novell’s stock responded negatively to Thursday’s report. It fell on Friday.

NOVL results in 2010

Share in other sites/networks: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • Reddit
  • email

Decor ᶃ Gemini Space

Below is a Web proxy. We recommend getting a Gemini client/browser.

Black/white/grey bullet button This post is also available in Gemini over at this address (requires a Gemini client/browser to open).

Decor ✐ Cross-references

Black/white/grey bullet button Pages that cross-reference this one, if any exist, are listed below or will be listed below over time.

Decor ▢ Respond and Discuss

Black/white/grey bullet button If you liked this post, consider subscribing to the RSS feed or join us now at the IRC channels.

10 Comments

  1. JohnD said,

    March 1, 2010 at 11:52 am

    Gravatar

    And once again you continue to show us how you can select information to support your point of view as well Roy.
    This quarter’s revenue was made without an additional 25 million from M$. The basic math will show that revenues did not drop by 25 million they dropped around 12 million – less than half. Which means they actually increased their own sales by approx. 13 million. That’s not bad. At the same time you trivialize the operating margin increase by having a margin of 10.6% in this economy is pretty darn good. Improved profit margin – improving sales (outside of M$) and no major changes to cash on hand – Novell is not circling the financial drain as closely as you would have people believe. I would also point people to the significant improvement in investing performance – a swing from a loss of 40 million last year to a gain of 12 million this year. That’s good stuff.
    I will say that this financial “review” is far more balanced than previous ones.

    your_friend Reply:

    There’s a lot of talk about Novell being bought today. It will be good to see Roy’s analysis of this. Looks like they Novell be just like SCO sooner than later, that is down the drain. A company that has a major competitor like Microsoft is a major source of funding is company in big trouble.

    Roy Schestowitz Reply:

    Yes, there is a lot to be said about it.

  2. JohnD said,

    March 1, 2010 at 3:16 pm

    Gravatar

    Isn’t funny how my last submission didn’t seem to get posted?

    Roy Schestowitz Reply:

    Isn’t funny how my last submission didn’t seem to get posted?

    Akismet flagged it.

    http://akismet.com/

    JohnD Reply:

    Why?

    Roy Schestowitz Reply:

    I really don’t know. It’s an external service from WordPress, one that I don’t control. It puts many other comments in the queue (among about 100 spam/day).

    JohnD Reply:

    Perhaps my name isn’t original enough. Thanks for the info.

  3. Roy Schestowitz said,

    March 1, 2010 at 6:48 pm

    Gravatar

    And once again you continue to show us how you can select information to support your point of view as well Roy.

    I put here every single article that I found.

    JohnD Reply:

    Yes you did, which is probably the biggest reason it’s more balanced than others, but it was this comment:
    ‘They compare a year of financial collapse to one that is less so. They also say nothing about the small margin, whose increase on an absolute scale is rather small.’
    And how you organized the “supporting” articles that I was referring to. You continue to remark that Novell is in “financial collapse” while it’s public accounting records continue to refute your claims.
    I realize your goal is to focus on any negative aspects of Novell to support your cause, but I will continue to take issue with statements that I feel are false or misleading. As I stated this summary of the financial report was much more balanced than the others you have done. What I’m not sure about is why. It may be that it was an honest attempt at being balanced or it may be that there just wasn’t enough “dirt” this time around. I’m hoping for the former. Once again you did a good job of collecting related articles on this subject. Thanks for posting the links to them so readers can come to their own conclusions about the content.

DecorWhat Else is New


  1. Links 29/11/2021: NuTyX 21.10.5 and CrossOver 21.1.0

    Links for the day



  2. This Apt Has Super Dumbass Powers. Linus Sebastian and Pop_OS!

    Guest post by Ryan, reprinted with permission



  3. [Meme] Trying to Appease Provocateurs and Borderline Trolls

    GNU/Linux isn’t just a clone of Microsoft Windows and it oughtn’t be a clone of Microsoft Windows, either; some people set themselves up for failure, maybe by intention



  4. Centralised Git Hosting Has a Business Model Which is Hostile Towards Developers' Interests (in Microsoft's Case, It's an Attack on Reciprocal Licensing and Persistent Manipulation)

    Spying, censoring, and abusing projects/developers/users are among the perks Microsoft found in GitHub; the E.E.E.-styled takeover is being misused for perception manipulation and even racism, so projects really need to take control of their hosting (outsourcing is risky and very expensive in the long run)



  5. Links 29/11/2021: FWUPD's 'Best Known Configuration' and Glimpse at OpenZFS 3.0

    Links for the day



  6. President Biden Wants to Put Microsofter in Charge of the Patent Office, Soon to Penalise Patent Applicants Who Don't Use Microsoft's Proprietary Formats

    The tradition of GAFAM or GIAFAM inside the USPTO carries on (e.g. Kappos and Lee; Kappos lobbies for Microsoft and IBM, whereas Lee now works for Amazon/Bezos after a career at Google); it's hard to believe anymore that the USPTO exists to serve innovators rather than aggressive monopolists, shielding their territory by patent threats (lawsuits or worse aggression) and cross-licensing that's akin to a cartel



  7. Microsoft GitHub Exposé — Part VIII — Mr. Graveley's Long Career Serving Microsoft's Agenda (Before Hiring by Microsoft to Work on GitHub's GPL Violations Machine)

    Balabhadra (Alex) Graveley was promoting .NET (or Mono) since his young days; his current job at Microsoft is consistent with past harms to GNU/Linux, basically pushing undesirable (except to Microsoft) things to GNU/Linux users; Tomboy used to be the main reason for distro ISOs to include Mono



  8. Dr. Andy Farnell on Teaching Cybersecurity in an Age of 'Fake Security'

    By Dr. Andy Farnell



  9. IRC Proceedings: Sunday, November 28, 2021

    IRC logs for Sunday, November 28, 2021



  10. Links 29/11/2021: Linux 5.16 RC3 and Lots of Patent Catch-up

    Links for the day



  11. By 2022 0% of 'News' Coverage About Patents Will Be Actual Journalism (Patent Litigation Sector Has Hijacked the World Wide Web to Disseminate Self-Promotional Misinformation)

    Finding news about the EPO is almost impossible because today’s so-called ‘news’ sites are in the pockets of Benoît Battistelli, António Campinos, and their cohorts who turned the EPO into a hub of litigation, not science; this is part of an international (worldwide) problem because financial resources for journalism have run out, and so the vacuum is filled/replaced almost entirely by Public Relations (PR) and marketing



  12. Trying to Appease Those Who Never Liked Free Software or Those Who Blindly Loved All Patent Monopolies to Begin With

    It’s crystal clear that trying to appease everyone, all the time, is impossible; in the case of the EPO, for example, we hope that exposing Team Battistelli/Campinos helps raise awareness of the harms of patent maximalism, and when speaking about Free software — whilst occasionally bashing the alternatives (proprietary) — we hope to convince more people to join the “Good Fight”



  13. Links 28/11/2021: Laravel 8.73 Released, GitHub Offline for Hours

    Links for the day



  14. IRC Proceedings: Saturday, November 27, 2021

    IRC logs for Saturday, November 27, 2021



  15. Links 27/11/2021: Nvidia’s DLSS Hype and Why GNU/Linux Matters

    Links for the day



  16. [Meme] Linus Gabriel Sebastian Takes GNU/Linux for a (Tail)'Spin'

    If you’re trying to prove that GNU/Linux is NOT Windows, then “haha! Well done…”



  17. GNU/Linux is for Freedom and It'll Gain Many Users When (or Where) People Understand What Software (or Computing) Freedom Means

    Software that respects people's freedom (and by extension privacy as well) is an alluring proposition; those who choose to try GNU/Linux for the wrong reasons are likely the wrong target audience for advocates



  18. Amid Reports of Microsoft's Competition Crimes in Europe...

    European companies are complaining, but they seem to overlook the principal aspect of an imperialistic system with bottomless pockets (almost 30 trillion dollars in debt already; US national debt soared again last month); Microsoft is shielded by a political system with military (“defence”) as bailout budget to help cushion international expansion for data grab and technical leverage, as we've seen in the case of EPO (this is all political, not technical, and should thus be treated as a political/corruption issue)



  19. Is Linus Trolling the GNU/Linux Community?

    This new video responds to what many sites have been provoked into amplifying



  20. Links 27/11/2021: Tux Paint 0.9.27 and SeaMonkey 1.1.19 in EasyOS

    Links for the day



  21. [Meme] Keeping Our Distance From Microsoft

    The OSI is the dagger, the Linux Foundation is the knife, and many others are the sword by which Microsoft tries to get into the very heart of GNU/Linux and extinguish the Free software movement



  22. Microsoft Edge Encourages Indebted Americans to Guilt-spend Just in Time for Christmas

    Guest post by Ryan, reprinted with permission



  23. IRC Proceedings: Friday, November 26, 2021

    IRC logs for Friday, November 26, 2021



  24. 38+ Years of GNU and 19+ Years of FSF Associate Membership

    “On November 25, 2002,” Wikipedia notes, “the FSF launched the FSF Associate Membership program for individuals.” As the above video points out, it all started almost 40 years ago.



  25. Gemini as a Platform for Gamers

    Contrary to what people often assume (or are led to assume), even without client-side scripting Gemini can accomplish a great deal; early adopters, many of whom are technical, test the limits of the very minimalistic (by design and intention) specification



  26. Improved Workflows: Achievement Unlocked

    Today we've completed a bunch of small projects that can make us more efficient (e.g. more Daily Links per day, more articles); the above video was recorded many hours ago to accompany the outline below



  27. Links 26/11/2021: New Complaint About Microsoft Competition Crimes in Europe, EuroLinux 8.5, GhostBSD 21.11.24, and Kiwi TCMS 10.5 Released

    Links for the day



  28. Links 26/11/2021: F35 Elections, Whonix 16.0.3.7, OSMC's November Refresh With Kodi 19.3

    Links for the day



  29. IRC Proceedings: Thursday, November 25, 2021

    IRC logs for Thursday, November 25, 2021



  30. IRC Proceedings: Wednesday, November 24, 2021

    IRC logs for Wednesday, November 24, 2021


RSS 64x64RSS Feed: subscribe to the RSS feed for regular updates

Home iconSite Wiki: You can improve this site by helping the extension of the site's content

Home iconSite Home: Background about the site and some key features in the front page

Chat iconIRC Channel: Come and chat with us in real time

Recent Posts