Summary: Vista 7 turns out to be the most expensive service pack ever; Sales do not proceed as hoped and planned, reveal reports from the mainstream press

THE reality behind Vista 7 continues to unfold. Earlier this month we showed that sales of computers were mostly flat despite Vista 7. Microsoft lies about it, but not the press in Asia, which claims "No Boost in PC Sales After Windows 7"

Here is an interpretation from the New York Times:

The story also notes that a PC sales upswing is unlikely for 2009, “due to most Windows Vista users not needing to replace their PCs in order to upgrade to Windows 7.”

Here is the original report.

Demand for PCs and hardware did not turn strong after the launch of Windows 7 in late October and is unlikely to do so in 2009 due to most Windows Vista users not needing to replace their PCs in order to upgrade to Windows 7, while some users are waiting for Microsoft to release Windows 7's first service pack, according to sources at PC vendors.

Many people are waiting for Service Pack 1 before even considering this newer version of Windows. In the mean time, Microsoft has gossip going on about Vista 8 vapourware, which some Web sites are naively parroting.

Another important observation was sent to us by a reader who wrote:

Vista is in the News Again

A strange wave of contortion and optimism about Windows 7 is spreading around. Inflated Windows 7 numbers are reported by both the WSJ and Information Week along with nearly identical talking points about how it's "a Windows World." The WSJ (aka Fox News) quotes Net Applications uncritically and belittles all other competitors. Randal Kennedy quotes the same talking points but gets his numbers from Information Week's own skewed measuring system. Even a Mac magazine catches some of this buzz. Kennedy makes an interesting observation that most others missed and turns all of the happy talk on it's head.

Kennedy noticed that Windows 7 is mostly being bought by unhappy Vista users. He tries to spin this as positive, "pent up demand for something better than Vista," but he needs to listen to himself and consider all of the options. This is the man who rightly told us all that Windows 7 was just Vista with a new coat of paint.

Windows 7, in effect, has a cap on its growth which is Vista's minority market share. The 30% of 22,000 Information Week readers gullible enough to install "Windows Pulse" probably represents the 12% of the real world that said they wanted Vista in consistent market surveys. There's little chance at 100% conversion to Windows 7. What we will see is a more fragmented and difficult to support Windows market, maybe 5% on Vista, 5% on Windows 7 and 100% of windows users looking for something that works. Microsoft will run out of money long before they can make Vista users happy or turn XP users into Windows 7 users.

Despite clueless optimism and amazing contortions from people profiting from the Windows upgrade treadmill, Microsoft's time has come and gone. The average computer user today is using a smart phone or a netbook, places where Windows 7 has no chance.

References

[1] Windows 7 is quickly displacing Vista -- but not XP (cross posted in pcworld) [2] Windows 7 Adoption Nudging Out Vista, Not XP [3] Windows 7 smashes Vista, while XP users stay away [4] Windows 7 Usage Outpaces Vista, Closes In on Mac

This seems to suggest that Vista 7 is treated as a service pack of Vista. As for the market share of GNU/Linux, the numbers above are too US-oriented to actually mean anything to Free software [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]. Net Applications is also funded by Microsoft. ⬆