09.12.11
The Rise and Fall of Rise and Fall
Summary: Why the enthusiastic predictions of something’s “fall” are often nothing more than an attempt at self-fulfilling prophecies
“I like X, but…”
Sounds familiar? This is a typical trolling tactic, pretending to like something before actually bashing it. Claiming the rise of something is order to declare it dead is a similar tactic. Poisonous people from The Guardian try this against Wikileaks and Microsoft trolls have been using this tactic for ages, especially through sensationalist blogs, e.g. in ZDNet. More recently we have been seeing claims of desktops “dying” or something along those lines. Well, they are not really dying, especially if one counts laptops as though they fall under the same category. But what we are generally seeing is a saturation and expansion of technology, which along with the growth of the Internet (higher bandwidth and low cost) is moving further away from the desk and the Ethernet port.
“But what we are generally seeing is a saturation and expansion of technology, which along with the growth of the Internet (higher bandwidth and low cost) is moving further away from the desk and the Ethernet port.”Thankfully, Linux-based platforms were fast to capitalise on the growth of this emerging market, elevating Linux from underdog to market leader. Basically we won but a lot of people just haven’t noticed it, to borrow a phrase recently heard from Samba developer Jeremy Allison.
Right now we see Linux on the rise. It has been on the rise for two decades and prior to its existence GNU was rising and one can only hope that Android will become more GNU-friendly. Those who try to predict a future fall of Android are probably correct as nothing lasts forever. But in the short term, Android is going to grow despite the FUD. It has already endured years of such FUD. The next few posts will discuss this in light of the latest news (written on the train, so expect typos). Based on confidential mail received today, we expect to see major action very soon. █
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